绝对和基准经济投票。从次国家角度看南欧十年的选举

IF 3.7 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE
M. Giuliani
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文运用回溯性投票理论对2010年至2019年在希腊、意大利、葡萄牙和西班牙四个南欧国家举行的15次选举进行了分析。国内经济状况的巨大差异证明采用原始的次国家视角是合理的,而对其他经济数量和范围的明确测试则提供了对选民行为的更可信的评估。除了提供地方回顾性投票的分类外,该研究还发现,公民根据地区失业水平和国家增长动态来评估现任者,进一步将当地经济状况与他们过去的表现作为基准。这些结果证明,在评估现任政府的经济能力时,南欧选民有着相似的参考。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Absolute and Benchmarked Economic Voting. A Subnational Perspective on a Decade of Elections in Southern Europe
ABSTRACT The article analyses the 15 elections that took place between 2010 and 2019 in four South European countries – Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain – through the lenses of the retrospective vote theory. The large within-country variation of economic conditions justifies the adoption of an original subnational perspective, while the explicit test of alternative economic quantities and horizons provides a more credible assessment of voters’ behaviours. Besides offering a taxonomy of local retrospective voting, the research found that citizens assessed the incumbents against regional unemployment levels and national growth dynamics, further benchmarking the local economic conditions against their past performances. These results give credit to the idea that the South European electorate shares similar references in assessing the economic competences of incumbent governments.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
21.20%
发文量
14
期刊介绍: A leading point of reference for scholars of Southern Europe, South European Society and Politics promotes both comparative and inter-disciplinary analyses, as well as offering innovative single county and sub-national studies. The journal acts as a forum for social, economic, cultural, contemporary historical and political approaches to research on the region, and is particularly keen to sponsor policy–focused studies in all these disciplines. The journal publishes research articles; South European Atlas with election reports and articles on other subjects of topical interest, and an extensive book reviews section, including both review articles and individual book reviews.
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