Fuzzy Logic Approach for Identifying the Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Production

This study is conducted to measure the effects of climate responsive variables on agricultural production rate in Bangladesh. Agriculture production is affected by the climate changes and natural disasters that cause farmers enormous financial losses. The study focused on the application of fuzzy logic to find out the effect of climate changes on the agricultural production of Bangladesh. The objective of the study is to see the proposed fuzzy system will aid farmers for taking decision of selecting right crop to get the optimal yield. A set of fuzzy rules have been utilized to obtain inference of agriculture production on different linguistic variables. Altered combination of climate variables like temperature, weather disasters, water availability, monsoon level, diseases, species extinction and deforestation are considered as fuzzy linguistic variables generated through sets of different fuzzy rules and applied to estimate agriculture production rate. Findings show that as temperature and weather disaster increases to its highest level the agriculture production reduces to its lowest level. Furthermore, temperature and water availability has a homogeneous effect on agriculture production which indicates that the effects of increased temperature are balanced by the supply of available water. The effects of temperature and monsoon level to agriculture production indicate high precipitation due to monsoon level damages agricultural production. Moderate temperature with pure water availability resulted from moderate monsoon level produces medium agriculture production. It was found that the minimum spread of diseases can produce moderate level of agriculture production. Nonetheless, species extinction has a long term effect on production and deforestation has an immediate effect on agriculture production. In conclusion, climate variables like weather disaster, deforestation, spread of disease, species extinction damage and reduce the agricultural production rate. The study demonstrates the application of fuzzy logic to examine the impact of climate change on the agriculture production in Bangladesh.