新冠肺炎疫情后的能源转型战略:到2055年,厄瓜多尔实现100%可再生能源仍不足以应对气候变化问题

N. Norouzi, M. Fani
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引用次数: 1

摘要

新冠肺炎大流行情景产生了负面影响。新冠肺炎疫情表明,我们的日常生活在很大程度上取决于能源的获取。因此,现在比以往任何时候都更有必要促进新的活动,如当地粮食生产,以及当地的能源捕获。本文旨在揭示和量化厄瓜多尔在新冠疫情和石油后向可再生能源转型的好处。对厄瓜多尔的石油生产、消费和储量进行了描述,并应用能源转型的概念来评估可再生能源整合的可能性、火电厂的逐步退出以及未来的能源战略。以2015年为基准,确定能源使用量为154.0太瓦时/年,相当于最终用户约为147太瓦时/年。目标是通过可再生能源和能源效率的整合,到2055年将最终使用需求减少到80.0太瓦时/年,为此计划了5个过渡阶段,直到获得100%的可再生能源系统。结论是,厄瓜多尔的能源转型在技术上是可能的,在经济上是可行的,而不放弃我们目前享有的能源福利。然而,结果表明,即使是100%的可再生能源也不足以应对气候变化。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Post-Covid-19 Energy Transition Strategies: Even Reaching 100% Renewable in Ecuador by 2055 is not Enough to Face Climate Change Issue
The pandemic scenario caused by Covid-19 generated negative impacts. Covid-19 has made it clear that our daily lives depend to a high degree on access to energy. Therefore, now more than ever, it is necessary to promote new activities such as local food production, but also local energy capture. This article is an attempt to expose and quantify the benefits of a renewable energy transition in Ecuador post Covid-19 and post-oil. The generation, consumption, and reserves of oil in Ecuador were characterized, and the concept of energy transition was applied to evaluate the possibilities of integration of renewables, the progressive exit of thermal power plants, and future energy strategies. The year 2015 was taken as a basis and it was determined that energy use was 154.0 TWh / year, which corresponds to an end-user of approximately 147 TWh / year. The objective was to reduce this end-use demand to 80.0 TWh/year by 2055 through the integration of renewables and energy efficiency, for which 5 transition phases were planned until a 100% renewable system was obtained. It is concluded that the energy transition in Ecuador is technically possible and economically viable, without giving up the energy well-being that we currently enjoy. However, results show that even 100% renewable is not enough to face climate change.
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