萨拉赫丁省控制新冠肺炎疫情的双干预社交距离策略比较研究

M. A. Ajeel, Muhammad A. Alkataan, O. B. Aghaa, Moataz Abdel-Gawad Abdel-Hamid Al-Ani, Zina Nizar Thanoun
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引用次数: 0

摘要

由新型冠状病毒引起的COVID-19大流行是一个全球性的健康问题。呼吸道疾病,急性呼吸窘迫综合征,微血栓形成,败血症,败血症和死亡率提出在这个情况下。及早发现疑似病例可使医疗和地方当局有足够时间启动适当的国际和国家感染传播控制方案。对比美国圣克拉拉市和萨拉赫丁市为控制新冠肺炎疫情而实施的双向距离社会干预战略的效果。利用新冠肺炎数学模型,对萨拉赫丁市和美国圣克拉拉市的预期大流行负担进行了估算。该模型通过比较单阶段策略(社会距离)和两阶段策略(社会距离&电灯开关方法),提供了适当干预控制策略应用的数量和时间间隔的数值数据。这两项战略表明,平均而言,12.3%的人口受基线流行病情景影响的比例为11.6%,一项战略的接触率为70%。在20%的社会接触中,只有0.11%的人口会被两种干预策略感染,而采用一种策略的人口感染率为0.165%。这将大大减少感染的传播,并大大推迟所有假设的高峰发生率。双向社交距离战略是萨拉赫丁控制COVID-19的有效工具,也是萨拉赫丁市危机细胞大流行在研究期结束前取得的重大成功。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Two-intervention Social Distancing Strategy to Control COVID-19 in Salaheddine Province; A Comparative Study
The COVID-19 pandemic, which is caused by a novel coronavirus, is a global health issue. A respiratory tract illness, acute respiratory distress syndrome, micro thrombosis, sepsis, sepsis, and mortality are presented in this case. Early identification of suspected cases allows sufficient time for medical and local authorities to initiate an appropriate international and national infection transmission control protocols. Assess the effectiveness of the two-way strategy for distancing social intervention that has been implemented to control COVID 19 in the city of Salaheddin as compared to Santa Clara in the U.S. The COVID-19 mathematical model is used to estimate the expected burden of pandemic in Salaheddin City as well as in in Santa Clara, US. This model provides numerical data on the number and time interval of the application of appropriate intervention control strategies by comparing one-strategy (social distancing) with a two-stage strategy (social distancing & light switch approach). The two strategies show that, on average, in 12.3% of the population the baseline epidemic scenario affected 11.6%, with a 1-strategy contact rate of 70%. While only 0.11% of the population will have been infected by the two-intervention strategy at a rate of 20% of social contact, compared to 0.165% with the application of the one strategy. This will significantly reduce the spread of the infection and significantly delay the peak incidence of all hypotheses. The two-way social distancing strategy is an efficient tool in Salaheddin to control COVID-19 and represents a major success for the Crisis Cell pandemic in the city of Salaheddin until the end of the study period .
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