Antalya-Manavgat yöresi ormanlarında tutuşma riskinin coğrafi dağılım modellemesi

Modelling of spatial prediction of fire ignition risk in the Antalya-Manavgat district Abstract: The aim of this study was to present the fire ignition risk for Manavgat-Antalya District to enable the planning of firefighting sources in a more qualified way. From sites within the study area, where forest fires broke out or not during the past five years, we obtained geographical coordinates, climate data, topographical data and variables like bedrock, stand types, settlement areas, roads and power lines and prepared them with geographical information systems. For all variables we performed Wilcoxon rank-sum test, interspecific correlation analysis and logistic regression analysis and obtained 4 different models. When ROC analysis was applied to these models, model 4 was determined as the most significant model and therefore used to prepare the fire ignition risk map for the Manavgat-Antalya District. According to this map, ignition risk within the study area was highest in and around settlement areas where roads and power lines concentrate and Turkish red pine is distributed, but it was lowest afar of settlement areas without roads and where species apart from Turkish red pine are distributed. According to the results some suggestions were made. Keywords : Forest fire, ignition risk, fire risk, fire risk map, forest fire occurrence probability Antalya-Manavgat yoresi ormanlarinda tutusma riskinin cografi dagilim modellemesi Ozet: Bu calismanin amaci Antalya-Manavgat yoresinde yangin cikma riskini ortaya koyarak yangin sondurme kaynaklarinin daha nitelikli olarak planlanmasina katki saglamaktir. Calisma alaninda son 5 yilda orman yangini cikan ve cikmayan mevkilere ait koordinatlar, iklim verileri, topografik veriler, anakaya, mescere tipleri, yerlesim alanlari, yollar ve enerji nakil hatlari degiskenleri ile ilgili veriler cografi bilgi sistemleri ortaminda hazirlanmistir. Degiskenlere sirasiyla temel bilesenler analizi, Wilcoxon sira istatistigi, nitelikler arasi iliski analizi, lojistik regresyon analizi uygulanmis ve 4 adet model elde edilmistir. Daha sonra ROC analizi uygulanarak en anlamli modelin model 4 oldugu belirlenmistir ve Antalya-Manavgat yoresi icin tutusma riski haritasi ortaya cikarilmistir. Bu haritaya gore calisma sahasinda yerlesim ve cevresi, yollarin ve enerji nakil hatlarinin yogunlastigi ve kizilcamin yayilis alanindaki kisimlarda tutusma riskinin en yuksek oldugu, ancak yolu olmayan, yerlesim yerlerinden uzak ve kizilcam disindaki turlerin yayilis gosterdigi yerlerde tutusma riskinin en dusuk oldugu gorulmektedir. Ortaya cikan sonuclara gore de bazi onerilerde bulunulmustur. Anahtar kelimeler: Orman yanginlari, tutusma riski, yangin riski, yangin risk haritasi, orman yangini cikma olasiligi Received (Gelis):  03.08.2015 -  Revised (Duzeltme):  09.10.2015 - Accepted (Kabul):  21.10.2015 Cite (Atif):  Guney, C.O., Ozkan, K., Şenturk, O., 2016. Modelling of spatial prediction of fire ignition risk in the Antalya-Manavgat district.  Journal of the Faculty of Forestry Istanbul University  66(2): 459-470. DOI: 10.17099/jffiu.42696