Analysis of declining trends in sugarcane yield at Wonji-Shoa Sugar Estate, Central Ethiopia

Abstract Yield decline has been the hallmark of Ethiopian sugarcane plantations. However, the extent and causes of the decline have not yet been empirically studied, making it difficult to manage the problem. This study aimed at analyzing the long-term yield data (1954–2022) with respect to variety and soil type. Thus, 8,923 records of yield data were summarized and sorted into decades, varieties, and soil types and then analyzed by applying Mann-Kendall and Tukey’s tests. The fields were classified and mapped using ArcGIS 10.3. The results revealed that 69% of the plantation fields were classified as “yield declining,” and the overall rate of decline has been 8.4 quintals ha−1 year−1 (R2 = 0.76). The rate of decline was higher for older than newer varieties and for vertisols than cambiols. Therefore, the older varieties should be micropropagated or replaced with improved ones, and the vertisols should be amended through practices such as green manuring, improved fallows, etc.