印尼油棕下游产业产能提升对油棕农户竞争力和福利的影响

Novindra Novindra, B. Sinaga, S. Hartoyo, Erwidodo Erwidodo
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引用次数: 4

摘要

印度尼西亚是向世界市场出口粗棕榈油(CPO)的最大国家。然而,考虑到印尼还进口CPO衍生产品,印尼CPO下游产业的产能必须继续提高。此外,印尼的油棕种植园仍然面临着环境和社会问题,例如:森林砍伐、泥炭地破坏、野生动物栖息地(如猩猩)的破坏以及土地所有权冲突。在这方面,印尼需要继续发展可以增加附加值和外汇、吸收就业、解决环境和社会问题的CPO下游产业。因此,我们需要适当的政府政策来支持CPO下游产业的发展。写作本文的目的是分析影响CPO CPO下游行业需求的因素(即:棕榈食用油、人造黄油和肥皂行业)在印尼,并评估便利化政策的影响,增加产能的CPO下游产业CPO Indonesia-Malaysia的竞争力和棕榈食用油、人造黄油和soap印尼的竞争力,以及油棕农民的福利在2015 - 2017年期间。本文是本论文运用CPO产业计量经济学模型的部分研究成果。本文的模型规范是一个由71个行为方程和51个恒等式组成的动态联立方程,并使用2SLS和牛顿方法对模型进行了估计和仿真。结果表明:CPO下游产业的生产能力影响CPO下游产业对CPO的需求;此外,如果棕榈油下游产业(棕榈油、人造黄油、肥皂、生物柴油等)的产能增加,将提高印尼出口棕榈油的竞争力及其衍生物和印尼油棕农民的福利。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Impact of Increasing in Production Capacity of CPO Downstream Industries on Competitiveness and Welfare of Oil Palm Farmers in Indoneisa
Indonesia is the largest country in exporting crude palm oil (CPO) to the world market. However, the production capacity of the CPO downstream industries in Indonesia must continue to be increased, bearing in mind that Indonesia also imports CPO derivative products. In addition, oil palm plantations in Indonesia still face environmental and social issues, such as: deforestation, damage to peatlands, destruction of wildlife habitat (such as orang-utans), and land tenure conflicts. In this connection, Indonesia needs to continue to develop the CPO downstream industries that can increase added value and foreign exchange, absorb employment, and address environmental and social issues. Therefore we need appropriate government policies to support the development of the CPO downstream industries. The purposes of writing this paper were to analyze the factors that influence CPO demand by the CPO downstream industries (ie: palm cooking oil, margarine and soap industry) in Indonesia, and to evaluate the impact of facilitation policy that increasing production capacity of the CPO downstream industries on the CPO competitiveness of Indonesia-Malaysia and the palm cooking oil, margarine and soap competitiveness of Indonesia, as well as the welfare of oil palm farmers in the 2015-2017 period. This paper was part of the dissertation research results that using the CPO industry econometrics model. The dissertation model specification is a dynamic simultaneous equation consisting of 71 behavioral equations and 51 identities, while the model was estimated and simulated using the 2SLS and Newton methods. The results showed that the production capacity of the CPO downstream industries affected CPO demand by the CPO downstream industries. Furthermore, if the production capacity of CPO downstream industries (palm cooking oil, margarine, soap, biodiesel and others) increases, it will increase the Indonesian competitiveness in export CPO and its derivative and welfare of oil palm farmers in Indonesia.
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