Seeking anticipatory adaptation: adaptive capacity and resilience to flood risk

ABSTRACT Adaptation to climate risks involves complementarities between vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and resilience. In this study focused on anticipatory adaptation as social dynamics and social construction, we assess county-level adaptive capacity and resilience to inland flood risks. This is done through the application of temporal models, spatial differentials of risk, and economic impulse-response dynamics in the US Upper Midwest over the last 20 years. Empirical results for anticipatory adaptation suggest that social capital attributes and a variety of mitigation measures play a critical role in alleviating flood risks. In addition, counties with higher levels of adaptive capacity rebound more quickly from sudden climate-induced events. Effective and proactive local adaptation planning and policy combined with a region-wide understanding of anticipatory adaptation and temporal matches, spatial differentials, and impulse-response dynamics can help minimise disaster loss and make disaster-prone communities more resilient to future events.