Decision making of maritime development scenario on the impact of naval base for supporting navy ships operations

The Indonesian Navy is the spearhead in maintaining maritime security in Indonesian waters. In carrying out its main tasks, the Indonesian Navy has components of an Integrated Fleet Weapon System in which there are elements of Ships and Naval Bases. To ensure the effectiveness of carrying out operations by ship elements, ship operations are supported by the Naval Base as the organizer of the support function. Naval Base's carrying capacity consists of 5 (five) support functions, including: (1) support for anchoring facilities; (2) support for supply facilities; (3) support for maintenance and repair facilities; (4) support facility maintenance personnel; and (5) support for base development facilities. Naval Base does not yet have its dock to support anchoring facilities for ship operations. In addition to cooperation in the use of the Naval Base anchorage facility, there is also cooperation in port security, both in terms of land and port water aspects. As the number of ship visits at Naval Base Harbor increases, the dock utility increases. The increase in dock utility resulted in a decrease in port services which also resulted in a decrease in the Naval Base Carrying Capacity. To improve port services, Pelindo III implements the port development program contained in the Naval Base Port Master Plan in Permen KP number 792 of 2017. In this study, an analysis of the impact of the Naval Base Port development policy on the carrying capacity of the Naval Base was carried out. The data analysis uses System Dynamics modeling with a simulation period of 30 years in 3 development scenarios, namely short-term scenarios, medium-term scenarios, and long-term scenarios. From the simulation results, it is found that the construction of the Naval Base port affects the Naval Base Carrying Capacity with an average increase of 1.8% in each policy scenario. The increase in Naval Base Carrying Capacity has an effect on increasing Ship Operations by an average of 1.8% and also increasing the Security of Naval Base Harbor by an average of 0.14%. The results of the analysis of this study can be used as consideration for policymaking by the Navy.