希腊地震灾害:东马其顿和色雷斯地区的比较研究

IF 6.5 3区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL

Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI:10.3390/geohazards4030014

Dimitris Sotiriadis, B. Margaris, N. Klimis, Ioannis M. Dokas

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引用次数: 0

摘要

希腊位于欧洲地震最活跃的地区之一。许多地震危险研究已经在希腊各地的不同地点进行，在区域或地方范围内。然而，目前用于建筑物和基础设施抗震设计的最新的国家地震危险图于2000年出版，此后一直没有更新。鉴于震源和地面运动建模的最新进展，本研究的重点是位于希腊北部的东马其顿和色雷斯(EMTH)地区的比较概率地震危险性评估(PSHA)。实现各种震源模型，并将其与更新的地震目录进行比较，以形成必要的震源模型逻辑树。地震动逻辑树由地震动预测方程(GMPEs)组成，该方程已被证明适合在希腊实施。PSHA结果以比较的方式呈现了东马其顿和色雷斯最重要的城市，这突出了不同震源模型之间地震危险性的可变性。提出了更新研究区的地震危险度图，并进行了比较分解分析，估计了对地震危险度贡献最大的地震情景。

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Seismic Hazard in Greece: A Comparative Study for the Region of East Macedonia and Thrace

Greece is located in one of the most seismically active regions in Europe. Many seismic hazard studies have been performed for various sites around Greece, at a regional or local scale. However, the latest national seismic hazard map, currently used for the seismic design of buildings and infrastructure, was published in 2000 and has not been updated since then. In light of recent advances in seismic source and ground motion modeling, the present study focuses on a comparative Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) for the region of East Macedonia and Thrace (EMTH), located in Northern Greece. Various seismic source models are implemented and compared against an updated earthquake catalog to form the necessary source model logic tree. The ground motion logic tree is composed of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), which have been proven suitable for implementation in Greece. PSHA results are presented for the most important cities of East Macedonia and Thrace in a comparative way, which highlights the variability of the seismic hazard among the various seismic source models. An updated seismic hazard map of the study area is proposed, and a comparative disaggregation analysis is performed to estimate the earthquake scenarios with the largest contribution to the seismic hazard.

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来源期刊

Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards Multiple-

CiteScore

8.70

自引率

10.40%

发文量

期刊介绍： Georisk covers many diversified but interlinked areas of active research and practice, such as geohazards (earthquakes, landslides, avalanches, rockfalls, tsunamis, etc.), safety of engineered systems (dams, buildings, offshore structures, lifelines, etc.), environmental risk, seismic risk, reliability-based design and code calibration, geostatistics, decision analyses, structural reliability, maintenance and life cycle performance, risk and vulnerability, hazard mapping, loss assessment (economic, social, environmental, etc.), GIS databases, remote sensing, and many other related disciplines. The underlying theme is that uncertainties associated with geomaterials (soils, rocks), geologic processes, and possible subsequent treatments, are usually large and complex and these uncertainties play an indispensable role in the risk assessment and management of engineered and natural systems. Significant theoretical and practical challenges remain on quantifying these uncertainties and developing defensible risk management methodologies that are acceptable to decision makers and stakeholders. Many opportunities to leverage on the rapid advancement in Bayesian analysis, machine learning, artificial intelligence, and other data-driven methods also exist, which can greatly enhance our decision-making abilities. The basic goal of this international peer-reviewed journal is to provide a multi-disciplinary scientific forum for cross fertilization of ideas between interested parties working on various aspects of georisk to advance the state-of-the-art and the state-of-the-practice.