{"title":"承载能力的新方法:从先验处方到基于潜在机制和动力学的后验推导","authors":"Safa Mote, Jorge Rivas, E. Kalnay","doi":"10.1146/annurev-earth-053018-060428","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The Human System is within the Earth System. They should be modeled bidirectionally coupled, as they are in reality. The Human System is rapidly expanding, mostly due to consumption of fossil fuels (approximately one million times faster than Nature accumulated them) and fossil water. This threatens not only other planetary subsystems but also the Human System itself. Carrying Capacity is an important tool to measure sustainability, but there is a widespread view that Carrying Capacity is not applicable to humans. Carrying Capacity has generally been prescribed a priori, mostly using the logistic equation. However, the real dynamics of human population and consumption are not represented by this equation or its variants. We argue that Carrying Capacity should not be prescribed but should insteadbe dynamically derived a posteriori from the bidirectional coupling of Earth System submodels with the Human System model. We demonstrate this approach with a minimal model of Human–Nature interaction (HANDY). ▪ The Human System is a subsystem of the Earth System, with inputs (resources) from Earth System sources and outputs (waste, emissions) to Earth System sinks. ▪ The Human System is growing rapidly due to nonrenewable stocks of fossil fuels and water and threatens the sustainability of the Human System and to overwhelm the Earth System. ▪ Carrying Capacity has been prescribed a priori and using the logistic equation, which does not represent the dynamics of the Human System. ▪ Our new approach to human Carrying Capacity is derived from dynamically coupled Earth System–Human System models and can be used to estimate the sustainability of the Human System.","PeriodicalId":8034,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":11.3000,"publicationDate":"2020-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"8","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A Novel Approach to Carrying Capacity: From a priori Prescription to a posteriori Derivation Based on Underlying Mechanisms and Dynamics\",\"authors\":\"Safa Mote, Jorge Rivas, E. 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We argue that Carrying Capacity should not be prescribed but should insteadbe dynamically derived a posteriori from the bidirectional coupling of Earth System submodels with the Human System model. We demonstrate this approach with a minimal model of Human–Nature interaction (HANDY). ▪ The Human System is a subsystem of the Earth System, with inputs (resources) from Earth System sources and outputs (waste, emissions) to Earth System sinks. ▪ The Human System is growing rapidly due to nonrenewable stocks of fossil fuels and water and threatens the sustainability of the Human System and to overwhelm the Earth System. ▪ Carrying Capacity has been prescribed a priori and using the logistic equation, which does not represent the dynamics of the Human System. ▪ Our new approach to human Carrying Capacity is derived from dynamically coupled Earth System–Human System models and can be used to estimate the sustainability of the Human System.\",\"PeriodicalId\":8034,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":11.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-05-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"8\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-053018-060428\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-053018-060428","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
A Novel Approach to Carrying Capacity: From a priori Prescription to a posteriori Derivation Based on Underlying Mechanisms and Dynamics
The Human System is within the Earth System. They should be modeled bidirectionally coupled, as they are in reality. The Human System is rapidly expanding, mostly due to consumption of fossil fuels (approximately one million times faster than Nature accumulated them) and fossil water. This threatens not only other planetary subsystems but also the Human System itself. Carrying Capacity is an important tool to measure sustainability, but there is a widespread view that Carrying Capacity is not applicable to humans. Carrying Capacity has generally been prescribed a priori, mostly using the logistic equation. However, the real dynamics of human population and consumption are not represented by this equation or its variants. We argue that Carrying Capacity should not be prescribed but should insteadbe dynamically derived a posteriori from the bidirectional coupling of Earth System submodels with the Human System model. We demonstrate this approach with a minimal model of Human–Nature interaction (HANDY). ▪ The Human System is a subsystem of the Earth System, with inputs (resources) from Earth System sources and outputs (waste, emissions) to Earth System sinks. ▪ The Human System is growing rapidly due to nonrenewable stocks of fossil fuels and water and threatens the sustainability of the Human System and to overwhelm the Earth System. ▪ Carrying Capacity has been prescribed a priori and using the logistic equation, which does not represent the dynamics of the Human System. ▪ Our new approach to human Carrying Capacity is derived from dynamically coupled Earth System–Human System models and can be used to estimate the sustainability of the Human System.
期刊介绍:
Since its establishment in 1973, the Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences has been dedicated to providing comprehensive coverage of advancements in the field. This esteemed publication examines various aspects of earth and planetary sciences, encompassing climate, environment, geological hazards, planet formation, and the evolution of life. To ensure wider accessibility, the latest volume of the journal has transitioned from a gated model to open access through the Subscribe to Open program by Annual Reviews. Consequently, all articles published in this volume are now available under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license.