基于蒙特卡罗区域尺度模拟的城市及城区地震灾害可靠估计的计算成本研究

IF 2.1 4区工程技术 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami Pub Date : 2022-04-30 DOI:10.1142/s1793431122400036

T. Iryo, K. Iiyama, M. Lalith, M. Hori

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引用次数: 0

摘要

正在开发高空间和时间分辨率的区域尺度模拟，以便更可靠地估计城市和城市地区的地震灾害。蒙特卡罗模拟用于解释分析模型中的各种不确定性。由于一次区域尺度的模拟需要大量的计算量，因此对蒙特卡罗模拟的计算成本进行估计是很重要的。在本文中，我们首先澄清了地面运动、结构地震反应、交通流和经济复苏模拟中涉及的不确定性。然后，我们以东京都市地震为例，评估可靠估计所需的计算成本。考虑到城市和城区数字信息的未来发展趋势和货币化计算成本，以及输入到区域尺度地震模拟中的地震情景的不确定性，讨论了蒙特卡罗区域尺度模拟的可靠性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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On Computational Costs for Monte Carlo Regional-Scale Simulation for Reliable Estimate of City and Urban Area Earthquake Disaster

Regional-scale simulation in high spatial and temporal resolutions is being developed for a more reliable estimate of earthquake disasters in city and urban areas. Monte Carlo simulation is used to account for various uncertainties in analysis models. Since one regional-scale simulation needs a large amount of computation, it is important to estimate computational costs for the Monte Carlo simulation. In this paper, we first clarify uncertainties involved in the simulation of ground motion, structural seismic response, traffic flow, and economic recoveries. We then evaluate computational costs that are required for the reliable estimate using Tokyo Metropolis Earthquake as an example. The reliability of the Monte Carlo regional-scale simulation is discussed, considering the future trends of digital information about city and urban areas and monetized computational cost as well as the uncertainty of an earthquake scenario which is input to the regional-scale earthquake simulation.

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来源期刊

Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami 地学-地球化学与地球物理

CiteScore

2.60

自引率

13.30%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami provides a common forum for scientists and engineers working in the areas of earthquakes and tsunamis to communicate and interact with one another and thereby enhance the opportunities for such cross-fertilization of ideas. The Journal publishes original papers pertaining to state-of-the-art research and development in Geological and Seismological Setting; Ground Motion, Site and Building Response; Tsunami Generation, Propagation, Damage and Mitigation, as well as Education and Risk Management following an earthquake or a tsunami. We welcome papers in the following categories: Geological and Seismological Aspects Tectonics: (Geology - earth processes) Fault processes and earthquake generation: seismology (earthquake processes) Earthquake wave propagation: geophysics Remote sensing Earthquake Engineering Geotechnical hazards and response Effects on buildings and structures Risk analysis and management Retrofitting and remediation Education and awareness Material Behaviour Soil Reinforced concrete Steel Tsunamis Tsunamigenic sources Tsunami propagation: Physical oceanography Run-up and damage: wave hydraulics.