德国政府的宏观经济预测:与独立预测机构的比较

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2020-02-21 DOI:10.1515/ger-2019-0047

R. Lehmann, Timo Wollmershäuser

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引用次数: 5

摘要

摘要本文研究了德国政府自20世纪70年代以来的宏观经济预测，并将其与德国独立预测机构联合经济预测的宏观经济预测进行了比较。我们的研究结果表明，两种名义GDP预测都偏向于较长时间的预测，这似乎是由于对德国趋势增长下降的错误评估以及正确预测衰退的系统性失败造成的。此外，我们表明德国政府偏离了联合经济预测的预测，这实际上恶化了预测的准确性。最后，我们发现这些偏差是由政治动机驱动的证据。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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The macroeconomic projections of the German government: A comparison to an independent forecasting institution

Abstract This paper investigates the macroeconomic projections of the German government since the 1970s and compares it to those of the Joint Economic Forecast, which is an independent forecasting institution in Germany. Our results indicate that both nominal GDP projections are upward biased for longer forecast horizons, which seems to be driven by a false assessment of the decline in Germany’s trend growth and a systematic failure to correctly anticipate recessions. Furthermore, we show that the German government deviates from the projections of the Joint Economic Forecast, which in fact worsened the forecast accuracy. Finally, we find evidence that these deviations are driven by political motives.

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.