Urban growth dynamics modeling through urban DNA in Tehran metropolitan region

ABSTRACT The spatial models dealing with urban growth dynamics have been widely studied, while rare works have considered under-developed countries. Several problems have been detected in creating, calibrating and applying urban growth models and changing land use. The present work aims the modelling land-use changes through the CA-GA model in which a frame is provided for analysis and producing a map of growth patterns in urban areas in different spatial scales to study and analyse the increasing urban growth in Tehran. To consider the land-use changes in Tehran, ETM+TM images of 1985, 1992, 2000, and 2020 were selected to be analysed by the CA-GA algorithm to model the growth of the urban areas. The total kappa of results in Tehran is about 0.93, indicating the required precision and confidence of applied combinative genetic-Cellular automata modelling methods to model urban development.