一个主要城市积极成就变化工具(PACT)的再验证:一个生存分析

IF 1.8 2区社会学 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Crime & Delinquency Pub Date : 2022-04-15 DOI:10.1177/00111287221087949

K. Mueller, M. T. Carey, Keeyoon Noh

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引用次数: 0

摘要

积极成就改变工具(PACT)是一种流行的风险评估工具，在全国各地的少年司法系统中使用。本研究旨在通过在生存分析的背景下利用累犯天数来重新验证南方大城市背景下的PACT。目前的研究关注的是PACT的风险分类在预测再犯方面是否有效。研究结果表明，PACT有效地预测了再犯，而不是偶然，再犯在缓刑早期尤其普遍，大多数事件发生在前200天内。然而，PACT对研究人群的预测效度不强，其实施可能受益于具体情况的改革。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Revalidating the Positive Achievement Change Tool (PACT) in a Major City: A Survival Analysis

The Positive Achievement Change Tool (PACT) is a popular risk-assessment tool used in juvenile justice systems across the country. This study is an effort at revalidating the PACT in the context of a large Southern city by utilizing days to recidivism in the context of survival analysis. The current research is concerned with whether the PACT’s risk classifications are effective in predicting recidivism. Findings indicate that the PACT effectively predicts recidivism better than chance and that recidivism is especially common early on in probation, with most incidents taking place within the first 200 days. However, the predictive validity of the PACT is not strong for the study population, and its implementation may benefit from context-specific reforms.

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来源期刊

Crime & Delinquency CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY-

CiteScore

4.30

自引率

9.50%

发文量

155

期刊介绍： Crime & Delinquency is a peer reviewed, policy-oriented journal for the scholar and professional with an interest in the field of criminology and criminal justice. The journal was developed to focus on a wide variety of issues and concerns that impact the criminal justice system.