农民对市场和气候风险的认知:巴基斯坦旁遮普的适应性行为

D. Ahmad, M. Shabbir, Salyha Zulfiqar Ali Shah
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引用次数: 2

摘要

目的:由于市场动态和气候风险,农村社区,特别是发展中国家的农村社区,正不断面临收入和作物生产的损失。本研究的具体目的是调查巴基斯坦旁遮普省农民对市场和气候风险的看法及其适应行为。方法:采用多阶段随机抽样方法收集了来自巴基斯坦旁遮普省三个基于气候分类的地区的480个家庭受访者的数据。研究结果:对于农民风险感知与综合风险和适应行为的实证相关性,本研究使用了两个Logit模型。据估计,对农贸市场和气候变化的风险认知显著影响了他们的采用行为,如农产品价格下跌和干旱,而洪水、降雨和冰雹风暴的增加。通过在模型中加入人口统计因素,提高了Logit模型的解释能力。大农场户主不愿意,而受过良好教育的男性农民则更热衷于采取措施规避风险。在避免气候风险方面,研究区大多数农民采取了计划调整和作物品种作为适应性措施。政策影响:为了激励农民适应和风险管理措施,需要通过正规机构在这些研究领域的补贴利率上提供足够的财政支持。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Farmer’s Perceptions on Market and Climate Risks: Adaptive Behavior in Punjab, Pakistan
Purpose: Rural communities particularly in developing countries are consecutively facing losses of income and crops production due to dynamics of the market and climatic risks. The specific objective of this research is to investigate farmers’ perceptions of market and climate risks and their adaptive behavior in Punjab, Pakistan. Methodology: A multistage random sampling approach was used for collecting the data of 480 household respondents from climate-based categorized three districts of Punjab, Pakistan. Findings: For empirical correlation of risk perception of farmers with combined risks and adaptive behavior, this study used two Logit models. Estimates indicated as risk perception of the farmers market and climate change significantly affected their adoption behavior such as fall in agriculture products prices and drought while an increase in floods, rainfall and hail storms. Logit model explanatory capacity was improved by including demographic factors in the model. Large farms household heads were unwilling whereas well-educated and male farmers were more enthusiastic to take measures for avoidance of risks. In averting the climate risks, the majority of farmers adopted scheduled adjustment and crop varieties as adaptive measures in the study area. Policy Implications: For motivating farmers to adapt and risk management measures there is a need for adequate provision of financial support through formal institutions on the subsidized rate of interest in these study areas.
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