道路交通事故的经济影响:以斯里兰卡为例

South Asia Economic Journal Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI:10.1177/1391561418822210

T. Bhavan

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引用次数: 9

摘要

本研究的目的是披露事故相关指数，并调查道路事故对1977年至2016年期间斯里兰卡经济绩效的影响程度。采用年度时间序列数据对事故指数进行评价，进行计量分析。采用增广的Dickey-Fuller (ADF)单位根分析和协整向量误差修正模型(VECM)参数的Johansen最大似然估计分别检验了时间序列的平稳性和变量之间的长期关系。分析结果证实了事故相关指标与宏观经济指标之间存在长期关系。长期弹性值反映了事故指数对宏观经济指标的影响程度和程度。Jel: r41, h510, i310, i32

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The Economic Impact of Road Accidents: The Case of Sri Lanka

The purpose of this study is to disclose accident-related indices and investigate the extent to which the road accidents impact on the economic performance of Sri Lanka during the period from 1977 to 2016. Annual time-series data are used to evaluate the accident indices for econometric analysis. Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root analysis and Johansen’s maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters of a cointegrating vector error correction model (VECM) are employed to test the stationary properties of the time series and to examine the long-run relationship between the variables, respectively. The results derived from the analysis confirm the existence of long-run relationship between the accident-related indices and macroeconomic indicators. The long-run elasticity values imply the signs and magnitude of impact of the accident indices on macroeconomic indicators. JEL: R41, H510, I310, I32

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来源期刊

South Asia Economic Journal Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

CiteScore

1.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The South Asian nations have progressively liberalized their economies in recent years in an effort to integrate with the world economy. They have also taken steps to enhance multilateral and regional economic integration. Even though the South Asian economies have grown at an average rate of more than 5 per cent over the last few years, roughly 40 per cent of their people still live below the poverty line. Hence, the South Asian region continues to face many challenges of economic and social development. The South Asia Economic Journal (SAEJ) is designed as a forum for informed debate on these issues, which are of vital importance to the people of the region who comprise one-sixth of the world’s population. The peer-reviewed journal is devoted to economic analysis and policy options aimed at promoting cooperation among the countries comprising South Asia. It also discusses South Asia’s position on global economic issues, its relations with other regional groupings and its response to global developments. We also welcome contributions to inter-disciplinary analysis on South Asia. As a refereed journal, SAEJ carries articles by scholars, economic commentators,policy-makers and officials, from both the private and public sectors. Our aim is to create a vibrant research space to explore the multidimensional economic issues of concern to scholars working on South Asia. Among the issues debated in relation to South Asia are: - the implications of global economic trends; - the issues and challenges by WTO; - approaches to industrialization and development; - the role of regional institutions such as the SAARC; - the relationship between SAARC and other regional economic groupings such as ASEAN; - the implications of economic liberalization for trade and investment in the region; - new initiatives that can be launched to enhance economic cooperation among the South Asian countries both on a bilateral and a regional basis.