行业冲击有多重要?

Enghin Atalay
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引用次数: 312

摘要

我量化了部门冲击对总产出商业周期波动的影响。我开发了一个多行业一般均衡模型,其中每个行业都使用其他行业生产的材料和资本品,然后使用美国行业销售、产出价格和投入选择的数据来估计这个模型。最大可能性估计表明,特定行业的冲击占总产出波动的近三分之二,大大大于以前的评估。确定特定行业冲击的相对重要性主要来自行业中间投入采购的数据,这些数据是早先对多行业模型的估计所忽略的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
How Important are Sectoral Shocks?
I quantify the contribution of sectoral shocks to business cycle fluctuations in aggregate output. I develop a multi-industry general equilibrium model in which each industry employs the material and capital goods produced by other sectors, and then estimate this model using data on U.S. industries sales, output prices, and input choices. Maximum likelihood estimates indicate that industry-specific shocks account for nearly two-thirds of the volatility of aggregate output, substantially larger than previously assessed. Identification of the relative importance of industry-specific shocks comes primarily from data on industries intermediate input purchases, data that earlier estimations of multi-industry models have ignored.
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