探索季节性天气因素对缅因州车道偏离事故频率的影响

IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION
Alainie Sawtelle, M. Shirazi, P. Gårder, J. Rubin
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引用次数: 2

摘要

车道偏离事故约占缅因州所有道路事故的34%,占所有道路死亡人数的70%以上。尽管平均每日交通量下降了18%,但从11月到4月这半年的天气较冷,造成了全年车道偏离事故的64%以上。本研究的目的是探讨季节性(即冬季与非冬季)和月度天气变化对缅因州农村道路车道偏离事故的影响程度。我们使用负二项模型和面板数据来分析2015年至2019年冬季和非冬季期间州际公路、次要干道、主要收集器和次要收集器的每月撞车事故。这些数据包括月平均日流量、几何特征和天气变量。研究结果表明,冬季各天气变量所反映的季节变化对车道偏离事故发生频率有显著影响。边际效应分析表明,当降雪量大于1英寸或降雨量增加1%时,州际公路车道偏离事故的平均数量分别增加约0.51%和0.09%。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Exploring the impact of seasonal weather factors on frequency of lane-departure crashes in Maine
Abstract Lane departure crashes account for approximately 34% of all roadway crashes and over 70% of all roadway fatalities in Maine. Despite an 18% decrease in average daily traffic volume, the half of the year with colder weather, from November to April, comprises over 64% of the yearly lane-departure crashes. The purpose of this study is to explore to what extent seasonal (i.e., winter vs. non-winter) and monthly weather variations impact lane departure crashes on rural Maine roads. We used a negative binomial model with panel data to analyze monthly crashes on Interstates, minor arterials, major collectors, and minor collectors from 2015 to 2019 for winter and non-winter periods. The data include monthly average daily traffic, geometric characteristics, and weather variables. The research results indicate that the seasonal variability as reflected in various weather variables significantly impact the frequency of lane-departure crashes during the winter period. The marginal effect analysis shows that as the number of days with more than 1 inch of snowfall, or rainfall increases by 1%, the average number of lane-departure crashes increases approximately by 0.51% and 0.09% on Interstate roadways, respectively.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
15.40%
发文量
38
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