评估巴西巴伊亚州格兰德河流域的强度-持续时间-频率方程和空间化技术

Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.1590/2318-0331.272220220083
A. Barbosa, Izaias Rodrigues de Souza Neto, V. Costa, Ludmilson Abritta Mendes
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在精细的时间和空间尺度上理解极端降雨的概率行为对于水工建筑的设计和风险评估至关重要。然而,在感兴趣的地点,适当分辨率的信息往往有限或无法获得,因此需要在区域尺度上估计强度-持续时间-频率(IDF)曲线。在本文中,我们采用降雨分解和空间化的简化方法来推导巴西巴伊亚州格兰德河流域的区域IDF方程。结果表明,在日时间尺度上,研究区域的最大降雨量可以用轻尾甘贝尔分布来合理描述。空间化过程表明,虽然逆距离加权(IDW)和普通克里格技术都可以捕获降雨分位数的空间变异,但在实际关注的几个持续时间内,只有前者能够模拟IDF参数的空间变异。最后,尽管简化了假设,但我们能够为上述数量推导出光滑的空间表面,这可能对未测量地点的水工结构设计有用。
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Assessing intensity-duration-frequency equations and spatialization techniques across the Grande River Basin in the state of Bahia, Brazil
ABSTRACT Understanding the probabilistic behavior of extreme rainfall on a fine temporal and spatial scales is crucial for design and risk assessment of hydraulic structures. However, information at appropriate resolutions is frequently limited or unavailable at the locations of interest, thereby requiring the estimation of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves at the regional scale. In this paper, we resort to simplified approaches for rainfall disaggregation and spatialization for deriving a regional IDF equation for the Grande River catchment, in the Brazilian state of Bahia. Our results suggest that, at the daily time scale, the maximum rainfall amounts can be reasonably described by the light-tailed Gumbel distribution in the study region. The spatialization procedures indicated that, whereas both the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) and the ordinary kriging techniques could capture the spatial variability of rainfall quantiles, for several durations of practical interest, only the former was able to model the spatial variability of the IDF parameters. Finally, despite the simplifying assumptions, we were able to derive smooth spatial surfaces for the aforementioned quantities, which might be useful for the design of hydraulic structures at ungauged sites.
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