Why Did Russia’s Mediation in the Syrian Conflict Fail in Making Peace?

Abstract:This article examines Russia’s military intervention in the Syrian civil war and the role of the regional and international actors in the conflict. We argue that Russian intervention aimed to prevent regime change, mediate the Syrian conflict and protect Moscow’s national and geostrategic interests. We also argue that using military leverage is not a sufficient condition to resolve the conflict, mainly because the interests of the external actors, the US, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others, need to be considered. Thus, it is important to pinpoint the regional and geostrategic dimensions of the conflict. In addition, we explain that systemic and regional power balances have been major constraints that hindered conflict settlement. The Geneva and Astana peace processes succeeded in de-escalating violence but failed to resolve the conflict. We conclude that leverage as such is not sufficient for successful mediation, and that a multilateral approach to peace might be a better approach to conflict resolution.