I Will … Sooner or Later. Predicting Whether and When Consumers Intend to Adopt New Technologies

Abstract Two of the most critical uncertainties associated with new technology introductions are whether and when the target market will adopt them. A new scale integrates cumulative time intervals and predicts adoption more accurately. Behavioral data collected during a two-year longitudinal study provides empirical evidence for its accuracy. The new measure outperformed two single-intent measures and achieved a hit rate of more than 80 % in predicting whether and when a cell-phone technology was adopted. Adoption likelihood can be estimated without actual sales data and thus be determined prior to the launch of a new product