Modeling of Landscape Change and Tele-Coupling in Local Socio-Ecological Systems: A Simulation of Land Use Change and Recreational Activities in Southern Idaho, United States

The modeling of landscape change and socio-ecological systems (SES) tends to ignore the interactions across distance and boundaries. To fill the gap, this research analyzes landscape change by considering the tele-coupling effects at the local scale between Owyhee county and Treasure Valley in Idaho, United States. The spatial distribution of recreational activities in Owyhee county are modeled by Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST). Land use and cover change (LUCC) are simulated using Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN). Results show that the tele-coupling effects have significant impacts on the nature-based recreation in Owyhee county. With the tele-coupling effects, MLPNN has achieved a high overall accuracy and kappa coefficient in LUCC. The findings suggest that the tele-coupling effects should be incorporated into the modeling of landscape change and SES. This study also provides policy implications for land management and stakeholder involvement in accommodating landscape change.