Socio-economic drivers of pig production and their effects on achieving sustainable development goals in China

ABSTRACT Understanding changes in livestock production and their relationship with socio-economic and environmental impacts is important for exploring the pathways towards sustainable development goals (SDGs) of food systems. We used pig production in China as a case study to evaluate how socio-economic indicators influence pig production and nutrient losses using the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) and Gini index. The recent acceleration in pig production is driven by an increase in average consumption of pig products per capita and government policies that support new pig production systems. The relationship between the rapid growth of worldwide pig production and its environmental impacts can be described using the EKC. The turning point in the EKC, i.e. the average income at which environmental degradation starts to decrease, is estimated to be USD 15–35 000 per capita when the pig production density is greater than 5.0 head per hectare of arable land. China’s pig production has not yet reached the EKC turning point; however, given the uneven distribution of pig production systems and supply chains (feed and water) and the limited land availability for utilizing manure nutrients, the continued increasing demand for pork in China will inevitably result in continued environmental degradation. The EKC turning point should be reached earlier than the global average level, especially as environmental regulation has been reinforced since 2014. Future government policies and regulations that optimize geographical locations for sustainable pig production (i.e. better spatial planning) and support improved manure nutrient management at both regional and farm levels are required.