重新启动酒店和旅游业:系统动力学和基于场景的建模

Q2 Social Sciences
P. Štumpf, Jitka Mattyašovská, Adriana Krištůfková
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引用次数: 0

摘要

旅游目的地被定义为一个开放的、复杂的、适应性强的系统,在这个系统中产生了经济、社会和环境领域的许多关系。本文旨在将旅游目的地定义为一个复杂系统的系统动力学模型,并确定后covid-19时代旅游业重启后系统的未来行为。主要的方法方法是系统动力学和仿真建模。本文以捷克共和国南波希米亚地区的复杂旅游系统为例,以库存和流量图(sfd)的形式提出,重点介绍了该旅游目的地的商业活动。仿真结果显示了系统在各种情况下的未来行为,并比较了几个经济指标的发展。将酒店和旅游业重启的三种可能的未来情景与没有covid-19疾病的理论情况进行了比较。本文提出的系统动力学模型对当前的旅游目的地管理系统理论有一定的贡献,可为旅游目的地管理者进行旅游目的地规划和制定旅游目的地战略提供实用依据。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Restart of Hospitality and Tourism: System Dynamics and Scenario-Based Modelling
A tourism destination is defined as an open, complex, and adaptive system, in which numerous relations in the economic, social, and environmental spheres are generated. This paper aims to define a system dynamics model of tourism destination as a complex system and to identify future behaviour of the system after the restart of tourism in the post-covid-19 era. The main methodological approaches were system dynamics and simulation modelling. The case of a complex tourism system in the South Bohemia Region, the Czech Republic, in the form of a Stocks and Flows Diagram (sfd) is presented in this paper, focusing on the business activities at this tourism destination. The simulation results show the future behaviours of the system in various scenarios and compare the development of several economic indicators. Three possible future scenarios of a restart of the hospitality and tourism industry are compared with the theoretical situation without covid-19 disease. The proposed system dynamics model contributes to the current theory of tourism destination management systems and can be used practically by destination managers for destination planning and to formulate destination strategies.
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来源期刊
Academica Turistica
Academica Turistica Social Sciences-Social Sciences (all)
CiteScore
1.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
32
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