Prospects for the Development of Polish Agri-Food Exports to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Countries

Abstract The aim of the article is to describe Polish agri-food exports to countries that are members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and to assess the possibilities of developing exports of Polish food producers to the markets of these countries. The study was conducted, among others, with the use of a synthetic perspective index based on the data from Statistics Poland and the wiTs-comtrade database. The study shows that rcep countries have a relatively low share in Polish agri-food exports (2.7% in 2021) and the trade is characterized by a permanently negative balance of food turnover. In the context of the growth prospects for polish exports, it is difficult to speak of the same product groups in all markets. On the contrary, the choice of a given market determines which products can be regarded as prospective in Polish exports to this market. The products include not only processed, but also agricultural and low-processed ones. There is a risk that the agreement, which has been in force since the beginning of 2022, will cause the diversion effect, consisting in reducing the trade of RCEP countries with non-RCEP countries. This may make it necessary to adapt the trade strategy implemented on the asian market by EU countries, including Poland, to the new conditions.