车辆数量对交通安全的影响:多相建模

IF 10.1 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, MECHANICAL

Facta Universitatis-Series Mechanical Engineering Pub Date : 2022-04-08 DOI:10.22190/fume220215012d

M. Damjanović, Željko Stević, D. Stanimirović, I. Tanackov, D. Marinković

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引用次数: 17

摘要

鉴于每天都有大量的人在交通事故中丧生，交通安全是当今的关键问题之一。交通事故的发生有多种影响因素，车辆数量是其中之一。本文通过应用多阶段建模来评估黑山1998-2020年期间的交通安全，目的是获得能够实施适当策略的比较结果。在DEA(数据包络分析)模型中，以每年注册车辆数量为所有场景的输入，共形成了6个两输入两输出的场景。此外，作为输入，情景包括AADT(年平均每日交通量)、公路运输的乘客、公路运输的乘客-公里、公路运输的货物、公路运输的吨公里和当地运输的乘客。造成人员伤亡的交通事故数目、造成物质损害的交通事故数目、死亡案件数目和受伤人数，视情况而定，作为产出加以观察。在DEA模型的基础上，采用改进的模糊逐步权重评价比分析法(IMF SWARA)确定输入和输出的权重，采用MARCOS (Measurement of alternatives and ranking by COmpromise solution)方法确定按年计算的交通安全最终状态。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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IMPACT OF THE NUMBER OF VEHICLES ON TRAFFIC SAFETY: MULTIPHASE MODELING

Traffic safety is one of the key issues nowadays, given the fact that a large number of people lose their lives in traffic accidents every day. There are various influential factors in the occurrence of traffic accidents, the number of vehicles being one of them. This paper assesses the traffic safety in Montenegro in the period 1998-2020 by applying the multiphase modeling with a purpose to obtain comparative results which enable implementation of adequate strategies. A total of six scenarios were formed with two inputs and two outputs in a DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) model, with the number of registered vehicles per year being an input in all scenarios. In addition, as inputs, the scenarios included AADT (Annual Average Daily Traffic), passengers in road transport, passenger-km by road transport, goods transported by road, tone-km by road, and passengers in local transport. The number of traffic accidents with casualties, the number of traffic accidents with material damage, the number of fatal cases and the number of injured persons, depending on a scenario, were observed as outputs. After the DEA model, IMF SWARA (Improved Fuzzy Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis) was applied to determine the weights of inputs and outputs, while the final state of traffic safety by years was determined using the MARCOS (Measurement of alternatives and ranking according to COmpromise solution) method.

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来源期刊

Facta Universitatis-Series Mechanical Engineering ENGINEERING, MECHANICAL-

CiteScore

14.40

自引率

2.50%

发文量

审稿时长

6 weeks

期刊介绍： Facta Universitatis, Series: Mechanical Engineering (FU Mech Eng) is an open-access, peer-reviewed international journal published by the University of Niš in the Republic of Serbia. It publishes high-quality, refereed papers three times a year, encompassing original theoretical and/or practice-oriented research as well as extended versions of previously published conference papers. The journal's scope covers the entire spectrum of Mechanical Engineering. Papers undergo rigorous peer review to ensure originality, relevance, and readability, maintaining high publication standards while offering a timely, comprehensive, and balanced review process.