Ecological Security Analysis : A Case Study in Heilongjiang Province of China

Ecological security plays the same important role with political security, economic security and national security. Existing research is still primitive in their abilities to resolve ecological security problem. In this case study, the indicators for ecological security evaluation was established in a Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied to determine the weight of the indices. And the ecological security status classification was evaluated by the ESI model for the years of 1999-2005. Grey Model (1,1) was applied to forecast the development trend of ecological security from 2006 to 2010 in Heilongjiang Province. This paper validated a new case study based on an indicator-based PSR framework, and combined the AHP assessing approach and Grey Model (1,1) prediction model. The results showed that the ecological security ranked the grade Fifth in 2000 and the grade Third in 2005, indicating the increase of ecological security. Predictions show that ecological security will be the grade Third for 2006, the grade Second for 2007-2008, and the grade First for 2009-2010. Thus, it can be seen that the ecological security is improving year by year, and the ecological environment quality has obviously improved with the implementation of eco-province construction since 2000. Through the effective facilitation of eco-province construction etc., the sustainable and healthy development of ecological security will finally be realized in Heilongjiang Province.