基于意向传播的自主自适应导航预测研究

L. Varga
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引用次数: 23

摘要

人们普遍认为,如果自主操作的导航设备利用实时交通信息,那么道路交通作为一个整体会自我适应当前的情况,从而通过避免拥堵来缩短出行时间。基于实时数据的汽车导航是否能够自适应并产生更好的交通效果,经典的理论模型并没有给出明确的答案。研究这一信念的新颖理论方法是在线路由博弈模型。目前的商用车导航系统是用一类简单的在线路由游戏来建模的。已经证明,简单幼稚的网络路由游戏可能会出现不良现象。改进汽车导航的方法之一是基于意图传播的预测,其中智能体共享他们的意图并可以预测未来的旅行时间。在本文中,我们证明了尽管在在线路由游戏中利用了预测,但在简单的朴素在线路由游戏中研究的现象仍然是可能的,尽管方式不同。通过这些结果,我们指出了在由导航设备组成的集体自适应系统中需要改进的地方。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
On Intention-Propagation-Based Prediction in Autonomously Self-Adapting Navigation
It is widely believed that road traffic as a whole self-adapts to the current situation to make travel times shorter by avoiding congestions, if the autonomously operating navigation devices exploit real-time traffic information. The classical theoretical models do not have definite answer if car navigation based on real-time data is able to self-adapt and produce better traffic or not. The novel theoretical approach to study this belief is the online routing game model. Current commercial car navigation systems are modelled with the class of simple naive online routing games. It is already proved that simple naive online routing games may show undesirable phenomena. One of the approaches to improve car navigation is intention-propagation-based prediction where agents share their intention and can forecast future travel times. In this paper we prove that in spite of exploiting prediction in online routing games, the phenomena studied in simple naive online routing games are still possible, although in a different way. With these results we point out where improvements are needed in collective adaptive systems composed of navigation devices.
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