{"title":"区域经济分析:系统动力学方法","authors":"Robert E. Markland, Peter J. Grandstaff","doi":"10.1016/0147-8001(77)90015-8","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper describes the development, validation, testing, and utilization of a systems dynamics model of the stagnating economy of the St. Louis Metropolitan Area. The model focuses on the operation of the area's labor market and uses an age-specific regimen for predicting changes in population, and the concept that the area's unemployment level is inversely related to its exports. The validity of the model is tested by setting its initial conditions to the 1960 values of its variables and running the model forward to 1970. Testing and utilization has involved a series of policy action simulations designed to determine what set of conditions might lead to improvement in the regional economy during the period 1975–2000. Extensive test results from application of the model are presented, and the implications of the various policy actions are discussed.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101267,"journal":{"name":"Urban Systems","volume":"2 4","pages":"Pages 171-181"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"1977-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0147-8001(77)90015-8","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Regional economic analysis: A systems dynamics approach\",\"authors\":\"Robert E. Markland, Peter J. Grandstaff\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/0147-8001(77)90015-8\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>This paper describes the development, validation, testing, and utilization of a systems dynamics model of the stagnating economy of the St. Louis Metropolitan Area. The model focuses on the operation of the area's labor market and uses an age-specific regimen for predicting changes in population, and the concept that the area's unemployment level is inversely related to its exports. The validity of the model is tested by setting its initial conditions to the 1960 values of its variables and running the model forward to 1970. Testing and utilization has involved a series of policy action simulations designed to determine what set of conditions might lead to improvement in the regional economy during the period 1975–2000. Extensive test results from application of the model are presented, and the implications of the various policy actions are discussed.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":101267,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Urban Systems\",\"volume\":\"2 4\",\"pages\":\"Pages 171-181\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"1977-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0147-8001(77)90015-8\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Urban Systems\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0147800177900158\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Urban Systems","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0147800177900158","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Regional economic analysis: A systems dynamics approach
This paper describes the development, validation, testing, and utilization of a systems dynamics model of the stagnating economy of the St. Louis Metropolitan Area. The model focuses on the operation of the area's labor market and uses an age-specific regimen for predicting changes in population, and the concept that the area's unemployment level is inversely related to its exports. The validity of the model is tested by setting its initial conditions to the 1960 values of its variables and running the model forward to 1970. Testing and utilization has involved a series of policy action simulations designed to determine what set of conditions might lead to improvement in the regional economy during the period 1975–2000. Extensive test results from application of the model are presented, and the implications of the various policy actions are discussed.
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