基于分布滞后模型的兰州市气温对上呼吸道感染的影响

Q4 Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
Guangyu Zhai, Kuan Zhang, G. Chai
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究主要分析了兰州市气温与上呼吸道感染(URI)的关系。我们收集了2010 - 2015年的每日URI和气象数据。采用分布滞后非线性模型研究了不同温度和不同滞后天数对URI发病率的关系和潜在影响。结果表明,URI的发病与气象因素有显著相关性,发病高峰多发生在11月~次年2月。结果表明,兰州市URI日发病率与气温、气压、风速有关。兰州市日平均气温对不同性别、不同年龄组的暴露效应曲线呈m型。温度对URI日发病率有一定的滞后效应。对于低温,影响出现在当天,最大影响出现在滞后2 d,持续12 d。女性比男性更脆弱,青少年和老年人受影响明显,成人受影响不明显。气象因素对兰州市URI的发生有重要影响,但低温是主要影响因素。温度可直接引发URI的发病;可诱发URI的各种症状(如感冒、喉咙痛、鼻炎),并直接影响URI在人群中的分布。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Impact of Temperature on Upper Respiratory Tract Infections in Lanzhou Based on the Distributed Lag Model
The study mainly analyzed the relationship between temperature and the upper respiratory tract infections (URI) in Lanzhou. We collected the daily URI and meteorological data from 2010 to 2015. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationship and potential effects of different temperatures and different lag days on the morbidity of URI. The results showed that the morbidity of URI was significantly related to the meteorological factors, and the peak of the onset of the disease usually occurred between November and February the next year. The correlation analysis was carried out between meteorological factors and URI cases, and the result revealed that the daily morbidity of URI in Lanzhou was related to air temperature, air pressure, and wind speed. The exposure effect curve of average daily temperature to different sex and different age groups in Lanzhou displayed an M-shaped. Temperature had a certain lag effect on the daily morbidity of URI. For low temperature, it appeared on the present day, and the maximum impact appeared at lag 2 days and persisted for 12 days. The female was more vulnerable than the male, and the impact was obvious in teenagers and the elderly and not obvious in adult. Meteorological factors play an important role in the occurrence of URI in Lanzhou, but the main factor is low temperature. Temperature can trigger the morbidity of URI directly; it can induce various symptoms of URI (such as cold, sore throat and rhinitis) and directly affect the distribution of URI in the population.
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来源期刊
Molecular & Cellular Biomechanics
Molecular & Cellular Biomechanics CELL BIOLOGYENGINEERING, BIOMEDICAL&-ENGINEERING, BIOMEDICAL
CiteScore
1.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
21
期刊介绍: The field of biomechanics concerns with motion, deformation, and forces in biological systems. With the explosive progress in molecular biology, genomic engineering, bioimaging, and nanotechnology, there will be an ever-increasing generation of knowledge and information concerning the mechanobiology of genes, proteins, cells, tissues, and organs. Such information will bring new diagnostic tools, new therapeutic approaches, and new knowledge on ourselves and our interactions with our environment. It becomes apparent that biomechanics focusing on molecules, cells as well as tissues and organs is an important aspect of modern biomedical sciences. The aims of this journal are to facilitate the studies of the mechanics of biomolecules (including proteins, genes, cytoskeletons, etc.), cells (and their interactions with extracellular matrix), tissues and organs, the development of relevant advanced mathematical methods, and the discovery of biological secrets. As science concerns only with relative truth, we seek ideas that are state-of-the-art, which may be controversial, but stimulate and promote new ideas, new techniques, and new applications.
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