利用自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)和奇异谱分析(SSA)方法预测明库鲁市红辣椒周价格

IF 1.1 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

Japanese Journal of Statistics and Data Science Pub Date : 2022-03-15 DOI:10.33369/jsds.v1i1.21007

Novi Putriasari, Sigit Nugroho, R. Rachmawati, Winalia Agwil, Y. O. Sitohang

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引用次数: 1

摘要

红辣椒在印尼经济结构中占有战略地位，因为它几乎适用于所有印尼菜肴。因此，控制红辣椒的价格是维护国家经济稳定的必要条件。本研究的目的是基于2016年1月至2019年12月印度尼西亚统计局(BPS)明古鲁省分公司提供的每周辣椒价格数据，使用ARIMA和SSA预测红辣椒每周价格。在MAPE基础上，ARIMA(2,1,2)的预测值为0.49%，SSA的预测值为10.64%。

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Forecasting A Weekly Red Chilli Price in Bengkulu City Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) Methods

Red chili occupies a strategic position in the Indonesian economic structure because its use applies to almost all Indonesian dishes. Therefore, controlling the price of red chili is anecessity to maintain national economic stability. The purpose of this research is to forecast a red chili weekly price using ARIMA and SSA based on the weekly data of chili prices from January 2016 - December 2019 sourced from Statistics Indonseia (BPS) Branch Office of Bengkulu Province. The data have been analyzed using software R. Based on MAPE, ARIMA (2,1,2) provides the best forecasting with value 0.49% while SSA 10.64%.

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来源期刊

Japanese Journal of Statistics and Data Science STATISTICS & PROBABILITY-

CiteScore

2.00

自引率

15.40%

发文量