基于优化灰色方法的工业水-废水-能源系统预测分析:以中国为例

IF 4 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Energy & Environment Pub Date : 2022-04-18 DOI:10.1177/0958305X221094666

Wen-ze Wu, C. Liu, Wanli Xie, M. Goh, Tao Zhang

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引用次数: 1

摘要

为了估计工业水-废-能(以下简称WWE)系统的动态趋势，本文提出了一种预测该系统具体指标的新方法。首先，将分数阶累积生成算子、分数阶导数和经典非线性灰色伯努利模型同时耦合，建立了一个优化的非线性灰色伯努利模型，用于识别工业WWE系统的非线性趋势。其次，采用粒子群优化算法确定新模型的最优模型参数;在此基础上，进行了仿真研究，验证了所提模型的稳定性。最后，将该模型应用于工业WWE系统。结果表明:(1)该模型在误差值度量方面优于其他竞争模型;(2)工业用水量和工业能耗将增加，而工业废水排放量将下降。并从政策角度分析了预测结果的合理性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Predictive analysis of the industrial water-waste-energy system using an optimised grey approach: A case study in China

To estimate the dynamic trend of industrial water-waste-energy (hereinafter referred to as WWE) system, this paper proposes a new method for forecasting specific indicators in such a system. First, the fractional accumulated generation operator, fractional derivative and classic nonlinear grey Bernoulli model are simultaneously coupled to develop an optimised nonlinear grey Bernoulli model that identifies the nonlinear trends in industrial WWE systems. Second, the particle swarm optimization algorithm is employed to determine the optimal model parameters in the newly-designed model. Based on this, simulation studies are conducted to examine the stability of the proposed model. Finally, the model is applied in the industrial WWE system. The results demonstrate that (1) the proposed model outperforms other competitive models in terms of error-value metrics and (2) industrial water use and industrial energy consumption will increase, whereas industrial wastewater discharge will decline. Furthermore, the rationality of the predicted results redis analyzed from a policy perspective.

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来源期刊

Energy & Environment ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

7.60

自引率

7.10%

发文量

157

期刊介绍： Energy & Environment is an interdisciplinary journal inviting energy policy analysts, natural scientists and engineers, as well as lawyers and economists to contribute to mutual understanding and learning, believing that better communication between experts will enhance the quality of policy, advance social well-being and help to reduce conflict. The journal encourages dialogue between the social sciences as energy demand and supply are observed and analysed with reference to politics of policy-making and implementation. The rapidly evolving social and environmental impacts of energy supply, transport, production and use at all levels require contribution from many disciplines if policy is to be effective. In particular E & E invite contributions from the study of policy delivery, ultimately more important than policy formation. The geopolitics of energy are also important, as are the impacts of environmental regulations and advancing technologies on national and local politics, and even global energy politics. Energy & Environment is a forum for constructive, professional information sharing, as well as debate across disciplines and professions, including the financial sector. Mathematical articles are outside the scope of Energy & Environment. The broader policy implications of submitted research should be addressed and environmental implications, not just emission quantities, be discussed with reference to scientific assumptions. This applies especially to technical papers based on arguments suggested by other disciplines, funding bodies or directly by policy-makers.