The COVID-19 pandemic: Global socio-economic and geopolitical implications

As the contours of the ‘living-with-COVID’ world define themselves, it is becoming increasingly clear that several of the trends predicted by the IMEMO 2020 report are actually materialising. In their work, IMEMO scholars highlight a variety of tendencies in the realm of international relations and domestic affairs, which first appeared in previous years but are now reinforcing themselves in 2020, due in part to the COVID-19 pandemic. These include uncertain socio-economic futures, political upheavals, increased societal tensions and a rise in global protest movements. In the specific sphere of international relations, the IMEMO report correctly highlights the rising geopolitical tensions, the heightened competition between powerful states, the growing pressures on international institutions, as well as a ‘general trend towards re-nationalisation’ of politics. Reference is also made in the report to the loss of appeal of the liberal-internationalist and globalist paradigm, both in international affairs and in the realm of domestic governance. The current article takes a closer look at these various trends, within the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, in order better to understand their global implications and assess their impact on developments in Russia. To examine the topic more effectively, the article clusters the trends identified by the IMEMO report into three specific areas of analysis – firstly, the post-COVID-19 global economic outlook and its social implications, both globally and inside Russia; secondly, the future of the international trade and strategic security regimes; and lastly, the new geostrategic confrontation between the United States and China, and Russia’s place in it. It concludes, as do IMEMO scholars, that the global outlook for international cooperation and multilateralism remains rather bleak. Yet, it nevertheless argues that certain positive developments can be discerned, which could provide some basis for hope.