先进的鞋类技术对2小时以下马拉松及其他顶级跑步成绩的影响

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2021-04-17 DOI:10.1515/jqas-2021-0043

Andreu Arderiu, Raphaël de Fondeville

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引用次数: 0

摘要

2019年，Eliud Kipchoge穿着耐克的Alphafly跑鞋跑了不到两个小时的马拉松。尽管这是有史以来最快的马拉松成绩，但由于比赛条件受到严格控制，以最大限度地提高他的成绩，这一成绩并未得到官方认可。此外，Kipchoge使用Alphafly鞋引起了争议，一些专家声称它们可能提供了不公平的竞争优势。在这项工作中，我们通过研究2001年至2019年从10公里到马拉松的长距离跑步最高成绩的演变，评估了先进鞋类技术的潜在影响和官方比赛中2小时以下马拉松比赛的可能性。分析是使用极值理论进行的，极值理论是处理罕见事件分析的统计领域。我们发现了一个显著的成绩提升效应的证据，即2021年马拉松男子项目创造新的世界纪录的可能性增加了10%。然而，结果表明，在2021年的正式比赛中实现两小时以下的马拉松比赛仍然是非常不可能的，到2025年才有超过10%的可能性。

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Influence of advanced footwear technology on sub-2 hour marathon and other top running performances

Abstract In 2019, Eliud Kipchoge ran a sub-two hour marathon wearing Nike’s Alphafly shoes. Despite being the fastest marathon time ever recorded, it wasn’t officially recognized as race conditions were tightly controlled to maximize his success. Besides, Kipchoge’s use of Alphafly shoes was controversial, with some experts claiming that they might have provided an unfair competitive advantage. In this work, we assess the potential influence of advanced footwear technology and the likelihood of a sub-two hour marathon in official races, by studying the evolution of running top performances from 2001 to 2019 for long distances ranging from 10 km to marathon. The analysis is performed using extreme value theory, a field of statistics dealing with analysis of rare events. We find a significant evidence of performance-enhancement effect with a 10% increase of the probability that a new world record for marathon-men discipline is set in 2021. However, results suggest that achieving a sub-two hour marathon in an official race in 2021 is still very unlikely, and exceeds 10% probability only by 2025.

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.