新全球经济在规划良好的旅程和混乱的旅程之间。在气候变化和大流行后的双重影响下,NGE:一个更复杂和更不可预测的系统

Petre Roman
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摘要

这篇文章致力于理解在气候变化和新冠疫情的影响下,世界经济出现的新特征。如今,经济研究主要面向与气候变化后果有关的不可预测的、有时令人困惑的情况。全球经济是一种具有新动力的复杂行为。如果要让绿色能源成为可预测的主要特征,我们将面临三个问题:它是强劲的、可持续的和有弹性的吗?新的全球经济不是关于光明的未来;它是关于选择一种积极的规范,它在今天表明了一种积极的行为。氢化石问题、电力成为可交易商品、核能作为可再生能源重要补充的新角色,都是重新设计能源市场的主要因素。我们可以有把握地说,到本世纪中叶,世界将需要重塑其能源体系。的确,尽管气候变化科学如今已牢固地建立在强有力的事实基础上,但最终的结果并不是当前趋势的简单延伸。在气候变化的影响下,当前的环境正处于一个无序的过渡阶段。全球混乱不应该是不可避免的,即使临界阈值似乎不可避免。显而易见的解决办法是在我们相信的事实之外进行合作。我们必须在不确定的情况下采取行动,这往往意味着更好的情况可能根本无法实现。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The New Global Economy between a Well-Planned Journey and a Chaotic One. Under the Impact of both Climate Change and the Post Pandemic, the NGE: A More Complex and Less Predictable System
The article is devoted to the understanding of the emergence of new traits of the global economy under the impact of climate change and the COVID pandemic. Economic research is nowadays primarily oriented towards the unpredictable and sometimes confusing situations related to the consequences of climate change. Global economy is a complex behavior with a new dynamic. If green energy is to be the main predictable feature we are confronted with three questions: is it robust, sustainable and resilient? The new global economy is not about a bright future; it is about selecting a positive norm that indicates today a positive behavior of it. Hydrogen fossil issue, electricity becoming a tradable commodity, the new role of nuclear energy as a crucial complement to renewables are among the main contributors in redesigning energy markets. We can safely say that by mid-century the world will need to remake its energy system. Indeed, while the science of climate change is today firmly established on powerful truths, the final outcome is not a simple extension of present-day trends. The environment, under the impact of climate change, is presently in a disordered phase of transition. Global disorder should not be inevitable even if critical thresholds seem to be inevitable. The obvious solution is cooperation out of what we believe to be true. We have to act in the presence of uncertainty and often that means that a better situation could be simply an unattainable one.
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