Dynamics of intergroup conflict and attitudes towards outgroup members: evidence from terrorist and secession conflicts

ABSTRACT Territorial conflicts are a significant feature of politics in Spain. The two most recent such processes are the cessation of violence by the terrorist group ETA and the pro-independence process in Catalonia. Both processes are likely to have affected the perception of intergroup threats, thus influencing the dynamics of intergroup conflict. This article embeds intergroup phenomena in a real context and applies theory to factual conflicts. Using data from two countrywide surveys run in 1994 and 2019, and by means of multivariate regression models, we analyze the role of socio-demographic, political, and cultural factors in the change of intergroup attitudes in Spain. Furthermore, we isolate non-political changes in society by matching between the populations of both surveys. We find that attitudes between the Basque national minority and the rest of Spain improved after the end of terrorism. Attitudes towards Catalonia do not show an association with the surge of the pro-independence movement, but attitudes from Catalans towards the rest of Spain worsened.