西巴尔干地区地缘政治发展情景的形成与比较

IF 0.4 Q4 GEOGRAPHY

Hrvatski Geografski Glasnik-Croatian Geographical Bulletin Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.21861/hgg.2023.85.01.05

Danijel Bačan

{"title":"西巴尔干地区地缘政治发展情景的形成与比较","authors":"Danijel Bačan","doi":"10.21861/hgg.2023.85.01.05","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The paper examines the geopolitical situation of the Western Balkans, a region defined along state borders by the European Union. The region includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia. For the purpose of the research, a survey was conducted among geography students in eight cities of the Western Balkans and in Zagreb. The survey was conducted according to the Delphi method in two rounds. By conducting research using a survey and the Delphi method, three scenarios of geopolitical development through 2031 were formed: \"Euro-Atlantic integration\", \"Status quo\" and \"Reconstruction of the Western Balkans\". By comparing the scenarios, it is apparent that the geopolitical development of the region in the next ten years will mostly follow the \"Status quo\" scenario, that is, according to the current geopolitical patterns of the region.","PeriodicalId":42319,"journal":{"name":"Hrvatski Geografski Glasnik-Croatian Geographical Bulletin","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4000,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Formation and comparison of scenarios of geopolitical development of the Western Balkans\",\"authors\":\"Danijel Bačan\",\"doi\":\"10.21861/hgg.2023.85.01.05\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The paper examines the geopolitical situation of the Western Balkans, a region defined along state borders by the European Union. The region includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia. For the purpose of the research, a survey was conducted among geography students in eight cities of the Western Balkans and in Zagreb. The survey was conducted according to the Delphi method in two rounds. By conducting research using a survey and the Delphi method, three scenarios of geopolitical development through 2031 were formed: \\\"Euro-Atlantic integration\\\", \\\"Status quo\\\" and \\\"Reconstruction of the Western Balkans\\\". By comparing the scenarios, it is apparent that the geopolitical development of the region in the next ten years will mostly follow the \\\"Status quo\\\" scenario, that is, according to the current geopolitical patterns of the region.\",\"PeriodicalId\":42319,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Hrvatski Geografski Glasnik-Croatian Geographical Bulletin\",\"volume\":\"14 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Hrvatski Geografski Glasnik-Croatian Geographical Bulletin\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.21861/hgg.2023.85.01.05\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOGRAPHY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Hrvatski Geografski Glasnik-Croatian Geographical Bulletin","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.21861/hgg.2023.85.01.05","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"GEOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

本文考察了西巴尔干地区的地缘政治形势，这是一个由欧盟沿国家边界划定的地区。该地区包括阿尔巴尼亚、波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那、黑山、科索沃、北马其顿和塞尔维亚。为了研究的目的，在西巴尔干的八个城市和萨格勒布的地理学生中进行了一项调查。调查采用德尔菲法，分两轮进行。通过调查和德尔菲法进行研究，形成了到2031年地缘政治发展的三种情景:“欧洲-大西洋一体化”、“现状”和“西巴尔干重建”。通过对情景的比较，可以明显看出，未来十年该地区的地缘政治发展将主要遵循“现状”情景，即按照该地区目前的地缘政治格局发展。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Formation and comparison of scenarios of geopolitical development of the Western Balkans

The paper examines the geopolitical situation of the Western Balkans, a region defined along state borders by the European Union. The region includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia. For the purpose of the research, a survey was conducted among geography students in eight cities of the Western Balkans and in Zagreb. The survey was conducted according to the Delphi method in two rounds. By conducting research using a survey and the Delphi method, three scenarios of geopolitical development through 2031 were formed: "Euro-Atlantic integration", "Status quo" and "Reconstruction of the Western Balkans". By comparing the scenarios, it is apparent that the geopolitical development of the region in the next ten years will mostly follow the "Status quo" scenario, that is, according to the current geopolitical patterns of the region.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Hrvatski Geografski Glasnik-Croatian Geographical Bulletin GEOGRAPHY-

CiteScore

0.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

22 weeks

期刊介绍： The Hrvatski geografski glasnik/Croatian Geographical Bulletin is a scientific journal that publishes the results of original theoretical and empirical geographical research, reviews from all geographic disciplines, spatially oriented papers from geosciences and other related scientific disciplines, as well as interdisciplinary papers. The journal particularly welcomes papers focused on spatial issues in Croatia, Central, Southern and South-Eastern Europe, as well as papers that present the results of previous research and themes published in the Hrvatski geografski glasnik/Croatian Geographical Bulletin. The journal is issued twice a year. A manuscript is submitted in English, and, if possible, in Croatian. Each submitted manuscript id reviewed by two peer-reviewers.