下涅瓦地区土地利用和土地覆盖变化的模拟

IF 0.4 Q4 GEOGRAPHY
Josip Šetka, Petra Radeljak Kaufmann, L. Valožić
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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究表明,模拟模型是预测土地变化的可靠工具,有助于更好地理解和管理人类对环境的影响。本文对1990 - 2035年青藏高原下涅瓦地区土地利用和土地覆盖变化进行了分析和模拟。最终基于元胞自动机和人工神经网络建立了未来变化的仿真模型,并在QGIS的MOLUSCE插件中实现。此外,还建立了2020年的试验仿真模型,显示了较高的精度。最终模拟模型的输入变量包括数字高程模型(DEM)、坡度、与水体的距离、与建成区的距离以及2011年和2021年住区的人口密度。根据结果,森林和草原将扩大,占据近45%的面积。预计建成区和农业区将略有增加,而沼泽、水体和稀疏植被区将减少。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modelling land use and land cover changes in the Lower Neretva Region
It has been shown that simulation models are reliable tools for predicting land changes, which contributes to better understanding and management of human impact on the environment. Land use and land cover changes in the Lower Neretva Region between 1990 and 2035 have been analysed and modelled in this study. The final simulation model of future changes was created based on cellular automata and artificial neural networks, implemented in the MOLUSCE plugin for QGIS. In addition, a test simulation model for 2020 was created, which showed high accuracy. Input variables for the final simulation model included a digital elevation model (DEM), slope, distance from water bodies, distance from built-up areas, and population density by settlement in 2011 and 2021. According to the results, forests and grasslands will expand and occupy almost 45% of the area. A slight increase in built-up and agricultural areas is expected, while swamps, water bodies, and sparse vegetation areas will decrease.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
0.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
5
审稿时长
22 weeks
期刊介绍: The Hrvatski geografski glasnik/Croatian Geographical Bulletin is a scientific journal that publishes the results of original theoretical and empirical geographical research, reviews from all geographic disciplines, spatially oriented papers from geosciences and other related scientific disciplines, as well as interdisciplinary papers. The journal particularly welcomes papers focused on spatial issues in Croatia, Central, Southern and South-Eastern Europe, as well as papers that present the results of previous research and themes published in the Hrvatski geografski glasnik/Croatian Geographical Bulletin. The journal is issued twice a year. A manuscript is submitted in English, and, if possible, in Croatian. Each submitted manuscript id reviewed by two peer-reviewers.
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