Rice production in Telangana: growth, instability and decomposition analysis

One of the objectives of the study is to assess the growth of rice sector in Telangana and growth rate is the measurable indicator for assessing the growth. The present study was conducted to assess the growth rates and instability in the area, production, and yield of rice in Telangana. Also, the relative contribution of area and yield to change in output was estimated by decomposition analysis. The study is based on secondary data for a period of 30 years i.e., 1990-91 to 2019-20. The secondary data were obtained from various publications of the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of India and Directorate of Rice Development, Patna. For this study, the whole period (1990-91 to 2019-20) is divided into three sub-periods to have a period-wise examination of growth and instability patterns of the area, production, and productivity of rice and the sub-periods were as follows: period I (1990-91 to 1999-2000), period II (2000-01 to 2009-10) and period III (2010-2011 to 2019-20), and overall period (1990-91 to 2019-20). Compound Growth Rates were used to calculate the growth rates. The instability in area, production, and yield was measured with Cuddy Della Valle Index and Coppock's Instability. The study revealed that the growth rates for Telangana in the overall period were positive for the area, production, and yield (2.1%, 3.7%, and 1.5% respectively). The Cuddy Della Valle Index for the overall period registered higher, medium, and low instability for production (35.1), area (26.4), and yield (7.6) respectively. Coppock's Instability indices revealed that the degree of instability for area and production was higher during period III in comparison to periods I and II. One of the major reasons for this could be the increased area under rice in period III, because of the assured irrigation due to the completion of many major and minor irrigation projects and revival of tanks under Mission Kakatiya in Telangana. The decomposition analysis for the overall period (1990-91 to 2019-20) revealed that the area effect was highly responsible for the production variability (46.1 percent) in Telangana. The area effect in enhancing rice production increased over some time. Since the scope to further increase the area under rice cultivation is limited, the focus should be on the improvement of the yield to meet the future demand for rice.