Classification of Urban Agricultural Functional Regions and Their Carbon Effects at the County Level in the Pearl River Delta, China

Exploring the transformation process of urban agricultural functions and its interaction with carbon effects based on regional differences is of great positive significance for achieving a low-carbon sustainable development of agriculture in metropolitan areas. By using the index system method, self-organizing feature maps (SOFM) network modeling, and Granger causality analysis, we divided the agricultural regional types of the Pearl River Delta (PRD) based on the spatio-temporal changes in urban agricultural functions and carbon effects at the county level in the PRD from 2002 to 2020, and analyzed the carbon effects generated by the agricultural functions according to the differences between the three agricultural regional types. The results show the following: (1) The changes in the basic functions of agriculture, the intermediate functions of agriculture, and the advanced functions of agriculture were different from the perspectives of both time and space. (2) The carbon effects produced by the areas with weak agricultural functions, the areas with medium agricultural functions, and the areas with strong agricultural functions were different. (3) The evolution of agricultural production types aggravated the grain risk in the PRD, and urban agriculture has potential in improving food security. (4) Based on the regional types of agricultural functions and considering the constraints of land and water, strategic suggestions such as integrating natural resources, improving utilization efficiency, upgrading technical facilities, and avoiding production pollution are put forward. (5) The green and low-carbon transformation of urban agriculture has its boundaries. The positive effects of the factors, namely the innovation of agricultural production methods, the change in agricultural organization modes, the impact of market orientation, and the transfer of the agricultural labor force, is limited. The findings of this paper provide valuable and meaningful insights for academia, policy makers, producers, and ultimately for the local population in general, driving the development of urban agriculture in a low-carbon and sustainable direction.