利用Mann-Kendall检验和Theil-Sen趋势研究评价平定省降水变化趋势

M. Tran Thi, Thuy Hoang Luu Thu, Vu Vuong Van, Huong Do Thi Van, Ha Dang Thi Ngan
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摘要

本文旨在利用Mann-Kendall检验法和Theil-Sen趋势对平定省1981 - 2919年月降雨量和月最小降雨量的变化趋势进行评价。结果表明:会仁站和平统站1月雨量有增加的趋势,增加1.2 ~ 1.3 mm\年;安仁站8月有增加的趋势,增加1.7 mm\年;革仁站6月有减少的趋势,减少1.6 mm\年,差异有5%的统计学意义。会仁站和基仁站的最小月份(1 - 4月)总降雨量有增加的趋势,年增加2.3 - 2.5毫米。其余站点月降雨量和月总降雨量不满足p值≤0.05的条件,因此假设H0为无趋势序列。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Research assessment variation trend of precipitation in Binh Dinh province by Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen trend
The paper aims to assess the changing trend of monthly rainfall and minimum monthly rainfall in Binh Dinh province by the Mann-Kendall test method and the Theil-Sen trend in the period 1981 - 2919. The results show that: With a statistical significance of 5%, rainfall tends to increase in January at Hoai Nhon and Binh Tuong stations with an increase of 1.2 - 1.3 mm\year and tends to increase in August at An Nhon station with an increase of 1.7 mm\year but tends to decrease in June at Quy Nhon station with a decrease of 1.6 mm\year. The total rainfall in the minimum months (from January to April) tends to increase at Hoai Nhon and Quy Nhon stations with an increase of 2.3 - 2.5 mm\year. Monthly rainfall and total monthly rainfall at the remaining stations do not satisfy the condition P-value ≤ 0.05, therefore, hypothesis H0 is accepted as a trendless series.
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