基于agent建模的定量投标方法的比较分析

IF 1.7 3区工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems Pub Date : 2020-07-02 DOI:10.1080/10286608.2020.1821670

S. Asgari

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引用次数: 3

摘要

【摘要】竞争性招标是建筑、工程和建设行业施工服务分配和价格确定的主要机制。定量招标方法在文献中受到了相当大的关注。这些方法(特别是弗里德曼和盖茨)的有效性和可靠性已经使用数学和统计分析进行了探索。本研究以基于主体的方法作为计算实验室，比较和研究了不同市场情景下主要定量投标方法的特点。结果表明，使用弗里德曼模型可以获得更高的市场份额和营运资金，而使用盖茨模型可以获得更高的长期盈利能力。最后，通过将模型分解为多个计算步骤，并通过灵敏度分析、鲁棒性分析和结构验证对仿真模型进行验证。

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Comparative analysis of quantitative bidding methods using agent-based modelling

ABSTRACT Competitive bidding is the main mechanism for the allocation and price determination of construction services in the Architecture, Engineering, and Construction industry. Quantitative bidding methods have received considerable attention in the literature. The validity and reliability of these methods (particularly Freidman and Gates) have been explored using mathematical and statistical analysis. This study aims to compare and examine the characteristics of major quantitative bidding methods under different market scenarios using an agent-based approach as a computational laboratory. The results indicate that using the Friedman model can result in obtaining higher market share and working capital whereas using the Gates model can result in gaining higher profitability in the long run. Finally, the simulation model is verified by breaking down the model into several computation steps and validated using sensitivity analysis, robustness analysis, and structural validation.

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来源期刊

Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems 工程技术-工程：土木

CiteScore

3.30

自引率

16.70%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems is devoted to the advancement of systems thinking and systems techniques throughout systems engineering, environmental engineering decision-making, and engineering management. We do this by publishing the practical applications and developments of "hard" and "soft" systems techniques and thinking. Submissions that allow for better analysis of civil engineering and environmental systems might look at: -Civil Engineering optimization -Risk assessment in engineering -Civil engineering decision analysis -System identification in engineering -Civil engineering numerical simulation -Uncertainty modelling in engineering -Qualitative modelling of complex engineering systems