尼日利亚阿库雷雨林生境LULC时空监测与预测

IF 0.3 Q4 REMOTE SENSING
Y. Aliyu, T. Youngu, A. Abubakar, A. Bala, Christianah I. Jesulowo
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引用次数: 5

摘要

几十年来,由于土地利用和土地覆盖的快速变化,尼日利亚城市的生物多样性一直在下降。为了预测短期/长期后果,本研究假设了尼日利亚西南部发展中的热带雨林城市Akure的LULC变量的影响。在1999-2019年期间,城市LULC呈现分化趋势。研究表明,20 a来,裸地、建成区、耕地、森林和草地的净变化分别为- 292.68 km2、+325.79 km2、+88.65 km2、+8.62 km2和- 131.38 km2。在人口预计增长46.85%的情况下,研究发现已建成土地覆盖由1.98%增加至48.61%。变化检测分析显示,新建区域类数量激增。与裸地类型(50.97% ~ 8.66%)和草地类型(36.33% ~ 17.94%)呈显著负相关。研究发现,土地消耗率(公顷)在1999年、2009年和2019年分别稳步增长0.00505、0.00362和0.0687。这一增长率高于在人口较多的城市进行的研究。元胞自动机(CA)马尔可夫分析预测,在未来20年(2039年),研究区域的建成区将增长37.92%。与全球其他城市的CA Markov预测相比,Akure建成区20年的预测是在范围内的。本研究结果将指导未来规划合理的土地利用价值评估。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Monitoring and forecasting spatio-temporal LULC for Akure rainforest habitat in Nigeria
Abstract For several decades, Nigerian cities have been experiencing a decline in their biodiversity resulting from rapid land use land cover (LULC) changes. Anticipating short/long-term consequences, this study hypothesised the effects of LULC variables in Akure, a developing tropical rainforest city in south-west Nigeria. A differentiated trend of urban LULC was determined over a period covering 1999–2019. The study showed the net change for bare land, built-up area, cultivated land, forest cover and grassland over the two decades to be −292.68 km2, +325.79 km2, +88.65 km2, +8.62 km2 and −131.38 km2, respectively. With a projected population increase of about 46.85%, the study identified that the built-up land cover increased from 1.98% to 48.61%. The change detection analysis revealed an upsurge in built area class. The expansion indicated a significant inverse correlation with the bare land class (50.97% to 8.66%) and grassland class (36.33% to 17.94%) over the study period. The study observed that the land consumption rate (in hectares) steadily increased by 0.00505, 0.00362 and 0.0687, in the year 1999, 2009 and 2019, respectively. This rate of increase is higher than studies conducted in more populated cities. The Cellular Automata (CA) Markovian analysis predicted a 37.92% growth of the study area will be the built-up area in the next two decades (2039). The 20-year prediction for Akure built-up area is within range when compared to CA Markov prediction for other cities across the globe. The findings of this study will guide future planning for rational LULC evaluation.
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自引率
28.60%
发文量
5
审稿时长
12 weeks
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