阿萨巴斯卡河流域气候与河流流量的最小二乘三交叉小波和多元回归分析

IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Ebrahim Ghaderpour, M. Zaghloul, H. Dastour, Anil K. Gupta, G. Achari, Q. Hassan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

河流流量监测是土地管理、农业、渔业、工业等领域的一项重要任务。本文提出了一种鲁棒最小二乘三重交叉小波分析方法来研究河流流量、温度和降水在时频域中可能存在的关系。加拿大的阿萨巴斯卡河流域(ARB)被选为研究这种关系的案例研究。利用传统的多元回归模型和提出的小波分析方法,对1950年以来ARB三个均匀分区的历史气候和河流流量数据进行了分析。在Hinton和Athabasca之间的子区域,所有月平均河流流量、温度和累积降水之间的Pearson相关性最高(0.87)。气候与河流流量的相关性在暖季和冷季分别最高和最低。特别是,温度、降水和河流流量之间的相关性最高的是5月的欣顿(0.78)、7月的阿萨巴斯卡(0.54)和9月的麦克默里堡(0.44)。新的小波分析结果表明,自1991年以来,三个分区的气候年周期与河流流量具有显著的一致性,其中Fort McMurray最高,为33.7%,Hinton最低,为4.7%,一致性更强。相延迟分析表明,1991年以来,降水的年周期和半年周期比河流流量的年周期和半年周期普遍超前几周,主要集中在ARB中上游。以1961-1990年为基准期,气候和河流流量异常也得到了证实,表明自1991年以来,所有三个分区的温度都显著升高,降水显著减少。与多元回归不同的是,小波方法可以在时频域分析任何水文气象时间序列,而不需要重采样、插值或填充间隙。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Least-Squares Triple Cross-Wavelet and Multivariate Regression Analyses of Climate and River Flow in Athabasca River Basin
River flow monitoring is a critical task for land management, agriculture, fishery, industry, and others. Herein, a robust least-squares triple cross-wavelet analysis is proposed to investigate possible relationships between river flow, temperature, and precipitation in the time-frequency domain. The Athabasca River Basin (ARB) in Canada is selected as a case study to investigate such relationships. The historical climate and river flow datasets since 1950 for three homogeneous subregions of ARB were analyzed using a traditional multivariate regression model and the proposed wavelet analysis. The highest Pearson correlation (0.87) was estimated between all the monthly averaged river flow, temperature, and accumulated precipitation for the subregion between Hinton and Athabasca. The highest and lowest correlations between climate and river flow were found to be during the open warm season and cold season, respectively. Particularly, the highest correlations between temperature, precipitation, and river flow were in May (0.78) for Hinton, July (0.54) for Athabasca, and September (0.44) for Fort McMurray. The new wavelet analysis revealed significant coherency between annual cycles of climate and river flow for the three subregions, with the highest of 33.7% for Fort McMurray and the lowest of 4.7% for Hinton with more coherency since 1991. The phase delay analysis showed that annual and semiannual cycles of precipitation generally led the ones in river flow by a few weeks mainly for upper and middle ARB since 1991. The climate and river flow anomalies were also demonstrated using the baseline period 1961-1990, showing a significant increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation since 1991 for all the three subregions. Unlike the multivariate regression, the proposed wavelet method can analyze any hydrometeorological time series in the time-frequency domain without any need for resampling, interpolation, or gap filling.
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来源期刊
Journal of Hydrometeorology
Journal of Hydrometeorology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
7.40
自引率
5.30%
发文量
116
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Hydrometeorology (JHM) (ISSN: 1525-755X; eISSN: 1525-7541) publishes research on modeling, observing, and forecasting processes related to fluxes and storage of water and energy, including interactions with the boundary layer and lower atmosphere, and processes related to precipitation, radiation, and other meteorological inputs.
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