年最高海平面与南方涛动指数的变化趋势研究

Jing Guan, D. Shi, Y. He
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引用次数: 0

摘要

厄尔尼诺-南方涛动是最强烈的海气相互作用现象,引起全球气候变化,对海平面变化产生重大影响。利用线性条件分位数回归模型分析了1897-1989年西澳大利亚Fremantle港年最高海平面与时间和南方涛动指数的线性变化趋势。并与经典最小二乘回归的结果进行了比较。结果表明,在不同分位数下,年最高海平面随时间和南方涛动指数的线性变化趋势不同,分位数回归比经典最小二乘回归能提供更多的信息。因此对预测和预防具有重要意义。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Research of the Trend between the Annual Maximum Sea Level and Southern Oscillation Index
El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the strongest sea-weather interaction phenomena, which causes global climate change, and makes significant impact on sea level variation. The linear trend of the annual maximum sea level at Fremantle Port, Western Australia, related with time and Southern Oscillation index during 1897-1989 is analyzed by linear conditional quantile regression model. And the result is compared with that of the classical least square regression. The result shows that, under different quantiles, the linear trend of the annual maximum sea level related with time and Southern Oscillation Index is different, and pantile regression can provide much more information than the classical least square regression. So it is of great significant for prediction and prevention.
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