通过加强预测与战略规划的联系来改进区域社会经济发展战略活动

E. Meteleva
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引用次数: 1

摘要

在不确定的条件下对区域社会经济发展进行战略管理的重要性正变得日益重要。本文的目的是确定在组织一个地区的社会和经济发展的战略和预测活动的主要问题。采用系统的思想和行动方法进行的研究表明,如果没有规范的预测和环境分析,就不可能在区域一级进行全面的战略规划,而俄罗斯联邦领土实体的国家政府机构对这一点没有给予足够的重视。战略预测和战略规划等阶段在战略制定过程中起着重要作用。本文从区域社会经济发展的角度阐述了战略管理(战略制定)的概念。研究发现,方法工具的不足和专家素质的低下导致了预测文件和管理决策的质量不高。已经提出建议,通过使用定性预测方法来支持预测该区域的社会经济发展。这些建议包括选择专家编制预测的标准,以及收集关于改变该区域社会经济发展的各个方面和方向的前景的专家意见的概念性分配计划。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Improvement of Activities of Strategizing of Social and Economic Development in a Region by Means of Strengthening the Interconnection between Forecasting and Strategic Planning
The importance of strategic management of the socio-economic development of regions in conditions of uncertainty is becoming increasingly important. The aim of this article is to identify the main problems in organizing activities of strategizing and forecasting of social and economic development of a region. The research conducted using the systemic mental and action approach showed that comprehensive strategic planning at the regional level is impossible without normative forecasting and environmental analysis, which state government bodies of the territorial entities of the Russian Federation do not pay sufficient attention to. Such stages of strategizing as forecasting and strategic planning play a major role in the process of strategizing. The article clarifies the concept of strategic management (strategizing) in relation to the socio-economic development of regions. It was found out that the shortcomings of the methodological tools and low level qualification of experts lead to a low quality of the developed forecast documents and management decisions. Suggestions have been deve­loped to support the forecasting of the socio-economic development of the region through the use of qualitative forecasting methods. The proposals include criteria for the selection of experts for the development of forecasts, as well as a conceptual distributed scheme for collecting expert opinions on the prospects for changing various aspects and directions of the socio-economic development of the region.
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