Early Classification Method for US Corn and Soybean by Incorporating MODIS-Estimated Phenological Data and Historical Classification Maps in Random-Forest Regression Algorithm

An early crop classification method is functionally required in a near-real-time crop-yield prediction system, especially for upland crops. This study proposes methods to estimate the mixed-pixel ratio of corn, soybean, and other classes within a low-resolution MODIS pixel by coupling MODIS-derived crop phenology information and the past Cropland Data Layer in a random-forest regression algorithm. Verification of the classification accuracy was conducted for the Midwestern United States. The following conclusions are drawn: The use of the random-forest algorithm is effective in estimating the mixed-pixel ratio, which leads to stable classification accuracy; the fusion of historical data and MODIS-derived crop phenology information provides much better crop classification accuracy than when these are used individually; and the input of a longer MODIS data period can improve classification accuracy, especially after day of year 279, because of improved estimation accuracy for the soybean emergence date.