了解电价演变-罗马尼亚的市场竞争力

IF 2.6 3区 经济学 Q1 Business, Management and Accounting
A. Bâra, S. Oprea, I. Georgescu
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引用次数: 6

摘要

2020年3月意外爆发的大流行病、欧洲为减少温室气体排放所做的努力、长期干旱、通货膨胀加剧以及乌克兰的战争显然对电价产生了强烈影响。在本文中,我们分析了罗马尼亚日前市场(DAM)的电价以及过去三年半的其他变量(通货膨胀、DAM上的天然气消费量和交易量),试图了解其在经济和地缘政治背景下的演变和未来趋势。提出了自回归分布滞后模型,从短期和长期角度分析变量之间的因果关系;提出了分位数回归(QR),以增强普通最小二乘(OLS)回归的结果。此外,利用市场集中度指标——赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数(HHI)、C1和C3比率,我们分析了罗马尼亚DAM的竞争力,并将其与电价演变联系起来。该市场的集中度指标分别反映了卖方和买方之间的竞争程度,他们的动态能够影响价格水平。较高的卖方集中度(HHI = 1500)表明该市场上存在潜在的投机行为,导致DAM价格上涨。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
UNDERSTANDING ELECTRICITY PRICE EVOLUTION – DAY-AHEAD MARKET COMPETITIVENESS IN ROMANIA
The unexpected pandemic eruption in March 2020, the European efforts to diminish the gas house emissions, prolonged drought, higher inflation and the war in Ukraine clearly have had a strong impact on the electricity price. In this paper, we analyze the electricity prices on the Romanian Day-Ahead Market (DAM) along with other variables (inflation, consumption and traded volume of gas on DAM) over the last three and a half years in an attempt to understand its evolution and future trend in the economic and geopolitical context. Autoregressive Distributed Lag models are proposed to analyze the causality among variables on short- and long-term perspective, whereas Quantile Regression (QR) is proposed to enhance the results of the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression. Furthermore, using market concentration metrics – Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), C1 and C3 ratio, we analyze the competitiveness on the Romanian DAM and correlate it with the electricity price evolution. The concentration indicators on this market reflect the degree of competition manifested between sellers and buyers respectively, their dynamics being able to influence the price level. The higher concentration on the sellers’ side (HHI = 1500) indicates a potential speculative behavior on this market that led to higher prices on DAM.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
3.80%
发文量
48
审稿时长
15 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Business Economics and Management is a peer-reviewed journal which publishes original research papers. The objective of the journal is to provide insights into business and strategic management issues through the publication of high quality research from around the world. We particularly focus on research undertaken in Western Europe but welcome perspectives from other regions of the world that enhance our knowledge in this area. The journal publishes in the following areas of research: Global Business Transition Issues Economic Growth and Development Economics of Organizations and Industries Finance and Investment Strategic Management Marketing Innovations Public Administration.
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