{"title":"了解电价演变-罗马尼亚的市场竞争力","authors":"A. Bâra, S. Oprea, I. Georgescu","doi":"10.3846/jbem.2023.19050","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The unexpected pandemic eruption in March 2020, the European efforts to diminish the gas house emissions, prolonged drought, higher inflation and the war in Ukraine clearly have had a strong impact on the electricity price. In this paper, we analyze the electricity prices on the Romanian Day-Ahead Market (DAM) along with other variables (inflation, consumption and traded volume of gas on DAM) over the last three and a half years in an attempt to understand its evolution and future trend in the economic and geopolitical context. Autoregressive Distributed Lag models are proposed to analyze the causality among variables on short- and long-term perspective, whereas Quantile Regression (QR) is proposed to enhance the results of the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression. Furthermore, using market concentration metrics – Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), C1 and C3 ratio, we analyze the competitiveness on the Romanian DAM and correlate it with the electricity price evolution. The concentration indicators on this market reflect the degree of competition manifested between sellers and buyers respectively, their dynamics being able to influence the price level. The higher concentration on the sellers’ side (HHI = 1500) indicates a potential speculative behavior on this market that led to higher prices on DAM.","PeriodicalId":47594,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Economics and Management","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"6","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"UNDERSTANDING ELECTRICITY PRICE EVOLUTION – DAY-AHEAD MARKET COMPETITIVENESS IN ROMANIA\",\"authors\":\"A. Bâra, S. Oprea, I. Georgescu\",\"doi\":\"10.3846/jbem.2023.19050\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The unexpected pandemic eruption in March 2020, the European efforts to diminish the gas house emissions, prolonged drought, higher inflation and the war in Ukraine clearly have had a strong impact on the electricity price. In this paper, we analyze the electricity prices on the Romanian Day-Ahead Market (DAM) along with other variables (inflation, consumption and traded volume of gas on DAM) over the last three and a half years in an attempt to understand its evolution and future trend in the economic and geopolitical context. Autoregressive Distributed Lag models are proposed to analyze the causality among variables on short- and long-term perspective, whereas Quantile Regression (QR) is proposed to enhance the results of the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression. Furthermore, using market concentration metrics – Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), C1 and C3 ratio, we analyze the competitiveness on the Romanian DAM and correlate it with the electricity price evolution. The concentration indicators on this market reflect the degree of competition manifested between sellers and buyers respectively, their dynamics being able to influence the price level. The higher concentration on the sellers’ side (HHI = 1500) indicates a potential speculative behavior on this market that led to higher prices on DAM.\",\"PeriodicalId\":47594,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Business Economics and Management\",\"volume\":\"25 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-05-10\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"6\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Business Economics and Management\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2023.19050\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"Business, Management and Accounting\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Business Economics and Management","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2023.19050","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"Business, Management and Accounting","Score":null,"Total":0}
UNDERSTANDING ELECTRICITY PRICE EVOLUTION – DAY-AHEAD MARKET COMPETITIVENESS IN ROMANIA
The unexpected pandemic eruption in March 2020, the European efforts to diminish the gas house emissions, prolonged drought, higher inflation and the war in Ukraine clearly have had a strong impact on the electricity price. In this paper, we analyze the electricity prices on the Romanian Day-Ahead Market (DAM) along with other variables (inflation, consumption and traded volume of gas on DAM) over the last three and a half years in an attempt to understand its evolution and future trend in the economic and geopolitical context. Autoregressive Distributed Lag models are proposed to analyze the causality among variables on short- and long-term perspective, whereas Quantile Regression (QR) is proposed to enhance the results of the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression. Furthermore, using market concentration metrics – Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), C1 and C3 ratio, we analyze the competitiveness on the Romanian DAM and correlate it with the electricity price evolution. The concentration indicators on this market reflect the degree of competition manifested between sellers and buyers respectively, their dynamics being able to influence the price level. The higher concentration on the sellers’ side (HHI = 1500) indicates a potential speculative behavior on this market that led to higher prices on DAM.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Business Economics and Management is a peer-reviewed journal which publishes original research papers. The objective of the journal is to provide insights into business and strategic management issues through the publication of high quality research from around the world. We particularly focus on research undertaken in Western Europe but welcome perspectives from other regions of the world that enhance our knowledge in this area. The journal publishes in the following areas of research: Global Business Transition Issues Economic Growth and Development Economics of Organizations and Industries Finance and Investment Strategic Management Marketing Innovations Public Administration.