A low total metabolic tumor volume independently predicts for a longer time to first treatment in initially observed, low tumor burden follicular lymphoma

Watchful waiting is an acceptable management strategy for advanced-stage, low tumor burden (LTB) patients with follicular lymphoma (FL). However, the prediction of how long this treatment-free observation period will last remains imperfect. We explored whether total metabolic tumor volume (TMTV) and other positron emission tomography parameters were predictive of time to first treatment (TTFT). We analyzed 97 grade 1–3A advanced-stage LTB FL patients and found that a high TMTV was associated with other tumor burden features at diagnosis. Patients with a TMTV above our established cutoff of 50 mL had a significantly shorter median duration of observation (2.6 vs. 8.8 years; p = 0.001). At 5 years, 77% of patients with a high TMTV and 46% of patients with a low TMTV required treatment. In the multivariable analysis, a high TMTV was the only independent factor predicting TTFT (hazard ratio = 2.09; p = 0.017). Overall, TMTV is a strong predictor of the duration of observation in LTB FL patients. Upon validation of our cutoff in external series and standardization of the methodology, the TMTV could become an additional factor to consider deferring or initiating treatment in otherwise LTB patients.